Patrick Fearon
Patrick Fearon
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The service sector of the economy is still growing at a good pace and that is consistent with what we were seeing in the employment report for November.
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There was decent strength across the retail sector. These numbers are consistent with an economy growing at a comfortable rate, a pace that would allow the Fed to continue to raise interest rates in a measured fashion.
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This is consistent with our view that the housing market is likely to continue to moderate in the coming months. But ... home sales are historically pretty strong.
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The drop in jobless claims is a darn good number. A number in the range of 325,000 to 350,000 is a level that is more consistent with healthy economic growth,
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The housing starts figure coming in down 5.6 percent was weaker than expected and seems consistent with our thesis that the housing sector is moderating. The big decline in housing permits reinforces that idea.
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Whether you look at the core personal consumption expenditure index on a monthly basis or a year over year basis, the inflation trend is basically 'steady Eddie.
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Manufacturing in broad terms is enjoying a very robust period even if certain sub-industries are struggling. It's probably another piece of evidence that the Fed could potentially be raising interest rates after the May 10 monetary policy meeting.
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Spending was up, a little weaker than expected... Nevertheless, the trend has been upward and it looks like the consumer is still in the ballgame in terms of supporting economic growth.
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That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.
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The 1.9 percent December year-over-year rise in the core personal consumption expenditure index reflects a stable and modest inflation rate. That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.
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With energy prices at least roughly flattening out, and with the labor market continuing to strengthen, those are probably two of the main reasons people are starting to get more optimistic.
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We've now had three straight quarters of above-average growth, and that's nothing to sneeze at.
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The fact that the final number is higher than the preliminary number shows that the American consumer is not going to be easily intimidated.
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The fact that (core inflation) has been on a downward trend for two months is more evidence that Fed policy-makers might stop raising interest rates sooner rather than later.