Patrick Fearon
Patrick Fearon
continuing energy labor main market people prices reasons roughly starting
With energy prices at least roughly flattening out, and with the labor market continuing to strengthen, those are probably two of the main reasons people are starting to get more optimistic.
albeit consumer continuing economic fact good growth labor market momentum positive reflects sign start year
It's a good sign that the consumer has some momentum going into the start of the year and that probably reflects the fact that the labor market is continuing to improve, albeit modestly. It's a positive for economic growth this year.
claims continuing drifting drop rate sign start
The drop in continuing claims could be a sign that the unemployment rate could start drifting downward.
basically basis core inflation personal trend whether year
Whether you look at the core personal consumption expenditure index on a monthly basis or a year over year basis, the inflation trend is basically 'steady Eddie.
broad certain enjoying evidence fed interest monetary period piece policy raising rates robust terms
Manufacturing in broad terms is enjoying a very robust period even if certain sub-industries are struggling. It's probably another piece of evidence that the Fed could potentially be raising interest rates after the May 10 monetary policy meeting.
ballgame consumer economic looks spending supporting terms trend weaker
Spending was up, a little weaker than expected... Nevertheless, the trend has been upward and it looks like the consumer is still in the ballgame in terms of supporting economic growth.
fed raising rates stop support
That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.
core december fed inflation modest percent personal raising rates reflects rise stable stop support
The 1.9 percent December year-over-year rise in the core personal consumption expenditure index reflects a stable and modest inflation rate. That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.
quarters sneeze straight three
We've now had three straight quarters of above-average growth, and that's nothing to sneeze at.
consumer easily fact final higher number shows
The fact that the final number is higher than the preliminary number shows that the American consumer is not going to be easily intimidated.
downward evidence fact fed interest might months raising rates rather sooner stop trend
The fact that (core inflation) has been on a downward trend for two months is more evidence that Fed policy-makers might stop raising interest rates sooner rather than later.
consumer sector shows strength
This shows some strength in the consumer sector at the end of the year.
claims close energy leading level months spike typical weekly
We're getting close to the weekly level of new claims that was typical of the months leading up to the late-summer hurricanes and the spike in energy prices.
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The positive message is that if you strip out the numbers that the Labor Department says are the result of the hurricane, the underlying figures are still pretty decent. That shows that there was some cushion in the economy before Katrina hit.