Patrick Fearon
Patrick Fearon
claims close energy leading level months spike typical weekly
We're getting close to the weekly level of new claims that was typical of the months leading up to the late-summer hurricanes and the spike in energy prices.
cushion department economy figures katrina labor message numbers positive result says shows strip underlying
The positive message is that if you strip out the numbers that the Labor Department says are the result of the hurricane, the underlying figures are still pretty decent. That shows that there was some cushion in the economy before Katrina hit.
conclude consumer eventually factor federal fourth growth help housing monetary rate reserve sector slow spending tend
We still think that the growth rate will slow substantially in the fourth quarter, in part because the housing sector is softening which will tend to soften consumer spending as well. That is one factor that will probably help the Federal Reserve eventually conclude its monetary tightening cycle.
certainly gasoline resulting spike weigh
There is certainly more going on than just hurricanes and a resulting spike in gasoline prices, ... could weigh on people's attitudes.
definitely level looking modest previous remain revision
We did have a modest upward revision in the previous week's claims, but we remain under the psychologically important 400,000 level and that's definitely something that we've been looking for.
believers finally labor market people starting
The labor market has been strengthening for a while, but it may be that people are finally starting to become believers in it.
cautious energy people possibly prices rebound recent reflects
It could be this reflects the recent rebound in energy prices that possibly made people a little more cautious again.