Peter Greene
Peter Greene
Peter Greeneis an American character actor, generally known for playing villains. Peter lives in New York...
ProfessionMovie Actor
Date of Birth8 October 1965
CityMontclair, NJ
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There's big fear. People are selling because they don't know what's going to happen. The news out of the BBC this morning that Iraq is getting ready for chemical warfare is a big part of it.
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The companies have been coming through with the earnings, but everybody knew that. People have become accustomed to the earnings being good. There's no surprise element. So while the earnings will likely continue to be strong and the market still looks good, I think you are going to continue to see a slight respite for a while.
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The key is what happens tomorrow. How will people interpret what the Fed says? How will the dollar do? The dollar has been hanging in by default, but if it really starts to roll over, that would hurt stock prices.
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The sentiment is changing. Airlines are bottoming, the 10-year note yield has bottomed, making it more attractive to be in stocks, and people are feeling more comfortable,
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As it stands, you have a continuation of some people wanting to take profits after the run this year. If the market is up this week, it's going to be muted.
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The stock market is a discounting mechanism. Many people recently have seen their mortgages raised -- and many people have adjustable rate mortgages -- unfortunately they have been raised. Oil prices are at near highs. It impacts people's discretionary income. And I think we're seeing it in those stocks that would have a relationship to that discretionary income.
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People have been talking for some time about large-cap stocks, and that's where the money is going today. They want to be in more secure companies that are going to benefit from global expansion.
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Right now it looks pretty benign, with people selling a little after the retail sales numbers. Long-term I'm bullish, but I'm getting concerned in the short-term as to what is going to sustain the psychology if the economy doesn't start to show more of a pick-up.
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People are comforted by Intel, but it's unsurprising that they had a good quarter, so you're seeing a little sell on the news, ... Market events get discounted more and more these days, and I think you're especially seeing that as we get into this period of digesting the earnings news.
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The 2003 rally was on low interest rates and a weak dollar. Now, that's changed. The dollar bottomed in February, and I think people are realizing what higher rates are going to mean for the stock market.
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This is impressive, but the caveat is that this is the day after a holiday and not many people are in. You also have certain key sectors, like chips and the insurers, not participating. I think you need to see a few more days of this to determine whether today is a head fake or not.
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How people feel determines where stocks go. It's a simplistic thing, but it's true. The volume is good, and you've got a nice bounce today, but the main thing is that stocks are reacting positively now, even when there is negative news.
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A lot of people made a lot of money in the last two days, but nothing much has changed. We're still facing layoffs and the threat of action in Afghanistan, ... This is still a market that is focused on good corporate events going forward, and right now, we're not really seeing any.
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I see people getting more encouraged, ... We need more companies to announce things are going to get better in the third and fourth quarters -- but things are getting better.