Peter Greene
Peter Greene
Peter Greeneis an American character actor, generally known for playing villains. Peter lives in New York...
ProfessionMovie Actor
Date of Birth8 October 1965
CityMontclair, NJ
august continue events higher market sideways tap tendency
I think it's going to continue to be a sideways market in August and into September. Seasonally, there's the tendency for selling, but as of now, there aren't any big events on tap that could take us a lot higher or a lot lower.
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I think traders are quick to take profits right now, because what else is there that stocks can do for an encore in the short term? We're still in an uptrend, but the probability right now, from a technical standpoint, is that we're going to have a little more selling.
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People are comforted by Intel, but it's unsurprising that they had a good quarter, so you're seeing a little sell on the news, ... Market events get discounted more and more these days, and I think you're especially seeing that as we get into this period of digesting the earnings news.
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It appears to me that fiber-optics and semiconductors have begun to make bottoms, ... Particularly in the semiconductor area, I think we're seeing very early stages of the fiber optic area.
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Microsoft is the second-largest company in the world, so when its shares are seeing that kind of surge, it's going to spill over into all kinds of other companies.
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People have been talking for some time about large-cap stocks, and that's where the money is going today. They want to be in more secure companies that are going to benefit from global expansion.
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My opinion is it's only natural for the Nasdaq composite to undergo some profit taking after a 30-plus percent advance in two months. Also, many groups that have been very strong -- like the semiconductor group, the drug group -- these are up against relative strength resistance. So it stands to reason that they're going to be profit taking,
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The 2003 rally was on low interest rates and a weak dollar. Now, that's changed. The dollar bottomed in February, and I think people are realizing what higher rates are going to mean for the stock market.
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When the dollar declines, there's less incentive for international investors to hold U.S. companies' assets because they decline in value. It also impacts perception. People want to see a stronger dollar to show America can stand on its own, particularly when there is all this uncertainty about North Korea, Iraq and Bush's new economic team.
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You have gains in the more cyclical names versus selling in Citigroup and J.P. Morgan. You also have the Dow getting a lift from some positive short-term movement in the dollar,
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Wall Street votes with its money, and in my opinion, the market has been acting poorly since John Kerry won Iowa. If the unemployment picture is indeed improving, then that bodes well for George Bush's reelection campaign, and generally, Wall Street prefers that a Republican is in office.
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The question is, how seriously do we take what's going on today, considering the volume, and what's going to happen next week when people come back? ... I would take today as a positive with the caveat that not many people are here.
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When there's a drop in crude prices, you tend to see it put into stocks with high multiples.
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We're seeing some typical selling after a sharp run-up. People are buying the safe names, like Philip Morris (MO: Research, Estimates) and Coca-Cola (KO: Research, Estimates), and selling anything that seems suspicious.