Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
background bag despite figures general higher inflation input low mixed output price quite remains striking
The figures are a mixed bag but what's quite striking is how low output price inflation remains despite the general background of higher input costs.
economy global last rally
The global economy has done pretty well and we had an end-of-year rally last year, which is continuing.
below changing five growth main next output point quarters though trend year
The main point though is that output growth has now been below trend for five quarters and we can't see that changing over the next year or so,
main message mortgage strength
The main message here is the unremitting strength of the mortgage market.
balance expect hold inflation last likely month news past rates remain report steady strong turned
Last month's inflation report was about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see. The balance of news has turned around significantly over the past month and we now expect rates to remain on hold at 4.5% for the remainder of the year.
inflation last likely rates report steady strong
Last month's inflation report ... (was) about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see.
although bit fall inflation month next numbers picking signs time wage
The fall in unemployment is a bit of a surprise. There are no signs for the time being that wage inflation is picking up although the numbers next month will be critical.
august bag consistent easing economic mixed news rates remaining since
Economic news since the 4 August easing has been a mixed bag and consistent with rates remaining on hold.
believe differ expect high hold majority members official peter rates recent remain run spending street stronger
While we believe the recent run of stronger high street spending will peter out, a majority of MPC members may differ and we expect official rates to remain on hold at 4.5 percent.
act boom december gone january marks retail slow spencer uk
Marks & Spencer has got its act together, ... There has been a UK retail boom in December but January has gone off to a slow start.
again although caution early happen inflation interest next rates until view
This underpins our view that interest rates will have to come down again although the MPC caution on inflation suggests that's not going to happen until early next year.
cut door next open perhaps rates soon
We think the door is still open for a cut in rates over the next two months, perhaps as soon as next month.
cannot changing economy economy-and-economics five growing next pace quarters situation year
The economy has been growing at a sub-par pace for five quarters now and we cannot see that situation changing over the next year or so.