Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
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Last month's inflation report was about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see. The balance of news has turned around significantly over the past month and we now expect rates to remain on hold at 4.5% for the remainder of the year.
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Last month's inflation report ... (was) about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see.
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Our view continues to be that unless the economy veers sharply from its present course one way or the other, base rates will remain at 4.5 percent for the rest of the year.
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Our view is that base rates will remain on hold for the rest of the year, but that if there were to be a move, it would be down.
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Although it is clear the Bank is planning to keep rates on hold for now, our view is the MPC is still too optimistic on growth.
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The next move in rates will be a cut. There is some uncertainty over whether rates will be brought down as soon as next month but we would not be at all surprised if it happens.
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Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.
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The figures are significantly better than expected and may call into question whether the MPC will raise interest rates at its July meeting. Clearly there are no inflationary pressures in the near term.
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Base rates will almost certainly remain on hold at 4.5%.
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If there are any signs that the economy will grow at or above trend, then the MPC will be even more reluctant to cut interest rates again.
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Economic news since the 4 August easing has been a mixed bag and consistent with rates remaining on hold.
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A lot of research in intelligence has not been that great. I would hope by this modest descriptive study to put things on an empirical footing.
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It's very early to be drawing too many conclusions on the high street after the Christmas and New Year trading period. It's going to take some time for the full picture to unfold.
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There was quite a positive effect on Wall Street overnight with both the Dow and the S&P fairly close to five-year highs, and that's given Continental European markets a boost first thing.