Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
balance base believe cent data hold per rates remain rest risks trends trigger turned weak
Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.
base hold rates remain rest view
Our view is that base rates will remain on hold for the rest of the year, but that if there were to be a move, it would be down.
base continues course economy percent present rates remain rest unless view
Our view continues to be that unless the economy veers sharply from its present course one way or the other, base rates will remain at 4.5 percent for the rest of the year.
bang line market
The announcement was bang in line with market expectations.
act boom december gone january marks retail slow spencer uk
Marks & Spencer has got its act together, ... There has been a UK retail boom in December but January has gone off to a slow start.
cut door next open perhaps rates soon
We think the door is still open for a cut in rates over the next two months, perhaps as soon as next month.
couple critical data deals due expect january numbers pay remain signs
The critical numbers will be the data on January which are due in a couple of months, but there are no signs of inflation-busting pay deals from these numbers and we expect that to remain the case.
continued houses line shows
This shows a continued need for new houses in line with the recommendations of the Barker report.
call continued couple cut degree growth interest justifying lower mean nervous next rate ready sluggish throw
We are increasingly nervous about our call for a quarter-point rate cut in February, even if we are not ready to throw in the towel. Continued sluggish growth should mean the next couple of years see a degree of disinflation, justifying lower interest rates.
coming committee continue debate downside output rates received surprises upside
The debate over rates will continue to intensify over the coming months, not least as the committee has received downside surprises from output and upside surprises from inflation.
growth last services stepped surprise upside
The PMI is a big upside surprise ... and is at least hinting that services growth stepped up at the end of last year.
almost base certainly hold rates remain
Base rates will almost certainly remain on hold at 4.5%.
consumer evidence slow spending starting
We think consumer spending will slow down and we're starting to see some evidence of that.
account taking
This was extraordinarily weak, even taking into account the seasonal unreliability of the data.