Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
brought month move next rates soon surprised whether
The next move in rates will be a cut. There is some uncertainty over whether rates will be brought down as soon as next month but we would not be at all surprised if it happens.
continued driving factor iraq main
Continued developments in Iraq will be the main factor driving markets.
balance base believe cent data hold per rates remain rest risks trends trigger turned weak
Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.
call clearly expected figures interest july near pressures question raise rates whether
The figures are significantly better than expected and may call into question whether the MPC will raise interest rates at its July meeting. Clearly there are no inflationary pressures in the near term.
background bag despite figures general higher inflation input low mixed output price quite remains striking
The figures are a mixed bag but what's quite striking is how low output price inflation remains despite the general background of higher input costs.
confidence consumer data followed later looking states toward
Everybody's looking toward consumer confidence in the States tomorrow, followed by other data later in the week.
against bank far mark optimism question rebound recovery year
The rebound so far this year is unconvincing and that has to place a question mark against the Bank of England's optimism for a recovery in consumption this year.
continued houses line shows
This shows a continued need for new houses in line with the recommendations of the Barker report.
headline peak seen
What this suggests is that we may have already seen the peak of headline inflation.
chances hike next virtually week
We think the chances of a hike next week are virtually zero.
call continued couple cut degree growth interest justifying lower mean nervous next rate ready sluggish throw
We are increasingly nervous about our call for a quarter-point rate cut in February, even if we are not ready to throw in the towel. Continued sluggish growth should mean the next couple of years see a degree of disinflation, justifying lower interest rates.
growth last services stepped surprise upside
The PMI is a big upside surprise ... and is at least hinting that services growth stepped up at the end of last year.
consumer evidence slow spending starting
We think consumer spending will slow down and we're starting to see some evidence of that.
couple critical data deals due expect january numbers pay remain signs
The critical numbers will be the data on January which are due in a couple of months, but there are no signs of inflation-busting pay deals from these numbers and we expect that to remain the case.