Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
brought month move next rates soon surprised whether
The next move in rates will be a cut. There is some uncertainty over whether rates will be brought down as soon as next month but we would not be at all surprised if it happens.
continued driving factor iraq main
Continued developments in Iraq will be the main factor driving markets.
balance base believe cent data hold per rates remain rest risks trends trigger turned weak
Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.
call clearly expected figures interest july near pressures question raise rates whether
The figures are significantly better than expected and may call into question whether the MPC will raise interest rates at its July meeting. Clearly there are no inflationary pressures in the near term.
account current deficit due earnings greater overseas
The current account deficit was very disappointing. What we hadn't factored in was the greater outflow due to overseas earnings in the UK.
background bag despite figures general higher inflation input low mixed output price quite remains striking
The figures are a mixed bag but what's quite striking is how low output price inflation remains despite the general background of higher input costs.
agile minds people tend
People with agile minds tend to have a very agile cortex.
confidence consumer data followed later looking states toward
Everybody's looking toward consumer confidence in the States tomorrow, followed by other data later in the week.
confusion familiar individual time
There's still a lot of confusion about what the sectors mean. I think it's going to take some time for the individual analysts to become familiar with their new companies.
corporate fears including increase neutral personal taxation virtually
As a result, fears over a significant near-term increase in personal or corporate taxation have virtually disappeared. Most expectations, including our own are for a broadly neutral stance.
almost base certainly hold rates remain
Base rates will almost certainly remain on hold at 4.5%.
action case european fear investors panic sell weaker
It was a case of the panic being overdone, ... U.S. institutional investors were going to sell their European assets, but the coordinated action removed the fear about a weaker euro.
agile almost minds
It's almost like the most agile minds have the most agile cortex.
boost general given next price retailers share statement
The Next statement has given a boost to general retailers and the Next share price in particular.