Shane Oliver
Shane Oliver
bank central consumer economic fuel interest prices rates rising slowing spending
Rising fuel prices will keep a lid on consumer spending for some time, slowing economic growth. The central bank will keep interest rates on hold.
bank build exactly help increased investment pressure reserve wants
This is exactly what the Reserve Bank wants because increased investment reduces inflationary pressure and will help build capacity.
bank both commodity concerned economy given global head higher knock pressure retail strength
The bank is concerned about inflationary pressure in the economy given the strength in the global economy and higher commodity prices. It will be a knock on the head for both retail and housing.
bank benign cheap consumer environment extremely fuel inflation interest items leave plenty prices range rates reasons remain retail slowing spending thanks underlying weak
Slowing housing, weak consumer spending and benign underlying inflation give the bank plenty of reasons to leave interest rates right where they are. Fuel prices are up, but thanks to an extremely competitive retail environment and cheap imports, prices for a whole range of items remain weak.
approach past six
It is a significant psychological milestone, the approach of which has triggered some profit-taking over the past six weeks.
assessment australian continue earnings global higher mainstream remains shares slightly stronger thanks yields
Our assessment remains that Australian shares will continue to outperform mainstream global shares thanks to a combination of higher dividend yields and slightly stronger earnings growth.
assessment bounce house mark prices start sustained unlikely
Our assessment is that house prices may have a bounce but this is unlikely to mark the start of a sustained recovery.
assessment australian continue course earnings global growth higher mainstream next resources shares slightly stronger thanks
Our assessment is that Australian shares will continue to outperform mainstream global shares over the next year, thanks to a combination of higher dividend yields, slightly stronger earnings growth (helped of course by the resources sector) and franking credits.
data economic generally numbers rates recent reserve rise run soft support
Recent economic data has been on the soft side. There is nothing in the recent run of generally soft numbers that would support another rise in rates by the Reserve Bank.
argued australian collapse commodity dollar europe fall few global growth impending prices seems strong stronger telling thanks time
Some have argued the fall in the Australian dollar at a time when commodity prices are still strong is telling us global growth is about to collapse. However, there are few indicators of any impending collapse in global growth or commodity prices. In fact, global growth seems to be strengthening thanks to stronger growth in Europe and Japan.
build capacity coming economic encourage growth investment living maintain mostly needs productive strong sustain
Long-term economic growth is not sustainable if it's coming mostly from remittances. To maintain a strong living standard, the Philippines needs to encourage investment and that will build productive capacity and sustain consumption over the long-term.
australian fact global indicate offer return shares similar trading
The fact that Australian shares are now trading on a similar pe to global shares does not indicate that they are overvalued or that global shares now offer better return prospects.
decision head knock recovery retail sales seeing slow
Today's decision will slow the recovery we've been seeing in retail sales and housing. It will be a knock on the head for both.
australian close easing fed interest investors likely monetary policy quite rates renewed shifting starting toward widening wonder
U.S. interest rates are pretty close to the top. By year- end it is quite likely the Fed will be shifting toward easing monetary policy and investors will be starting to wonder about a renewed widening in the Australian and U.S. interest-rate gap.