Shane Oliver
Shane Oliver
china commodity driving growth remains strong
The China growth story, which has been driving commodity prices, remains as strong as ever,
global growth insulated looking mining portraying rely resources returns stocks tragic woes
Returns aren't going to be as tragic as some are portraying because the mining stocks are still looking fine. The resources stocks rely more on global growth so, to a degree, they're insulated from many of the woes afflicting our own economy.
argued australian collapse commodity dollar europe fall few global growth impending prices seems strong stronger telling thanks time
Some have argued the fall in the Australian dollar at a time when commodity prices are still strong is telling us global growth is about to collapse. However, there are few indicators of any impending collapse in global growth or commodity prices. In fact, global growth seems to be strengthening thanks to stronger growth in Europe and Japan.
assessment australian continue course earnings global growth higher mainstream next resources shares slightly stronger thanks
Our assessment is that Australian shares will continue to outperform mainstream global shares over the next year, thanks to a combination of higher dividend yields, slightly stronger earnings growth (helped of course by the resources sector) and franking credits.
cent consensus december growth per profit year
Consensus expectations are for profit growth of 13.4 per cent for the year to the December quarter.
build capacity coming economic encourage growth investment living maintain mostly needs productive strong sustain
Long-term economic growth is not sustainable if it's coming mostly from remittances. To maintain a strong living standard, the Philippines needs to encourage investment and that will build productive capacity and sustain consumption over the long-term.
globally hostage largely market
Our market will be largely hostage to what's going on globally this week.
appears correction due period
A correction or period of consolidation is due and this now appears to be happening.
asian crisis far risk situation
The situation is far healthier. The risk of another Asian crisis is very low.
asian consumer fuels general japan performance picture profit shares spending
The general picture is for a substantial performance in Asian shares as consumer spending in Japan and China, in particular, fuels profit growth.
assessment australian continue earnings global higher mainstream remains shares slightly stronger thanks yields
Our assessment remains that Australian shares will continue to outperform mainstream global shares thanks to a combination of higher dividend yields and slightly stronger earnings growth.
australian earnings market share strong thanks
So on this basis, and thanks to very strong earnings growth, the Australian share market is still cheap.
bank central consumer economic fuel interest prices rates rising slowing spending
Rising fuel prices will keep a lid on consumer spending for some time, slowing economic growth. The central bank will keep interest rates on hold.
lasting relevance zealand
Developments in New Zealand are of little relevance to Australia, so won't have a lasting impact.