Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
benefits cracked fall fears quite worst
At worst it's a wash-out, ... I don't think the fears or the benefits of the dollar's fall are really quite as much as they're cracked up to be.
difference number outlook
Friday's number is not going to make much of a difference for the outlook for the economy.
comforting entirely information turn worry year
This is not entirely comforting but you'd need a lot more information than one month's PPI at the turn of the year to worry about inflation,
activity building conditions early employment gain growth judging last outlook period start strong unlikely unusually warm weather winter
Some of the conditions that have ripened the growth outlook at the start of 2006 are unlikely to last into spring. Abnormally warm weather boosted construction activity in December. ... Judging by a 46,000 gain in construction employment in January, the winter 2006 will go down as an unusually early and strong period for building activity.
billion build companies declines demand growth inventory per quarter rate second third
We had unintentional inventory declines in the second and third quarters, which is what you would typically get in a recession. I think companies will need to build $50 billion per quarter in inventories, even if the demand growth rate is just 3.5 percent.
gas pose prices
We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point.
everywhere fact improvement notion spending tech
This notion that there's just too much tech everywhere contrasts with the fact that there's actually been a spending improvement,
areas data included surprise
Today's data included well-known as well as surprise areas of weakness.
again along benchmark change changes payroll picture question
Years from now, new benchmark revisions will come along and change the whole picture again -- which begs the question of how important these monthly payroll changes are. I think it's irresponsible to make too much of these reports.
basis broader fed future goes language managing market mean might nearly next points rates regarding week whether
Whether the Fed goes 25 or 50 basis points next week might mean something for managing market psychology, but it doesn't mean nearly as much for the broader economy. Their language regarding their future considerations on rates is what should matter.
ahead creating demand fast jobs month moving supply
What's most important is that we've got demand and supply moving ahead fast enough that we're absorbing and creating jobs month in and month out -- that's not something to lament.
activity began bottom business catch clean confidence consumer cycle data durable economic entirely eventually expecting gains goods growth june moderate modest pointing time
We're not expecting an entirely clean read for the durable goods report. The business confidence data began to bottom at the end of June and that's encouraging. We probably will see modest gains in consumer activity and eventually the business cycle will catch up to that. But so far, everything right now is pointing to frustrating moderate economic growth for the time being,
boom bust consumer falling since single spending year
We haven't had a single year of falling consumer spending since 1938. There's no boom or bust in consumer spending.
fact hit june orders wall
The fact is orders just hit a wall in June and July.