Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
again along benchmark change changes payroll picture question
Years from now, new benchmark revisions will come along and change the whole picture again -- which begs the question of how important these monthly payroll changes are. I think it's irresponsible to make too much of these reports.
continue drag economy higher larger oil prices summer
We're getting higher and higher oil prices each day and you'll continue to see a larger drag on the economy through the summer months.
basis broader fed future goes language managing market mean might nearly next points rates regarding week whether
Whether the Fed goes 25 or 50 basis points next week might mean something for managing market psychology, but it doesn't mean nearly as much for the broader economy. Their language regarding their future considerations on rates is what should matter.
damaging pace risk seen sign urgency
I don't' think we've seen any sign here that there is an urgency to risk damaging the pace of the upturn. Why rush, why panic?
bad condition data february indicative jobs large losing march several underlying
There are several large drags, in a statistical sense. The underlying condition is that we're probably losing jobs. But the February and March data are not indicative of how bad it really is.
data economic guide month noted poor single time
He has time over time noted a single month of economic data is a poor guide to the future,
action change markets
There is no change in course, and markets have already priced in more action.
basis begun economic entire freeing generally growth high less living low periods productive resources rising stronger surprise
Freeing up less productive resources by accomplishing more with less is the entire basis for rising living standards. It shouldn't come as a surprise that stronger periods of economic growth have generally begun during periods of high unemployment, not low unemployment.
difference number outlook
Friday's number is not going to make much of a difference for the outlook for the economy.
changes data employment expected hours providing slightly stronger thus weaker
While we don't take monthly changes in employment too seriously, today's data were slightly stronger than expected on hiring, but slightly weaker on hours and utilization, thus providing a 'growth positive' outlook.
confidence core data ease economy healthy investor markets otherwise quite recovery supporting wonder worked
While the U.S. economy is still transitioning, and will for some time, data that should be supporting confidence in the recovery have not worked to ease investor concerns. We have to wonder if markets won't derail an otherwise quite healthy recovery in much of the core of the U.S. economy.
beneath demand faster moving production rate
Beneath the surface, production and inventory, here and abroad, are moving up faster than the rate of demand growth,
benchmark case forecasts january underlying
Benchmark revisions could completely recast underlying data, in which case January forecasts won't be useful.
broken exports flat month running second trade
Exports were flat for a second month running and that has been what is most broken in the trade picture.