Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
damaging pace risk seen sign urgency
I don't' think we've seen any sign here that there is an urgency to risk damaging the pace of the upturn. Why rush, why panic?
barrel economy move next oil prices
If you can tell me where the next move in oil prices is going to be -- up to $60 a barrel or down to $20 -- I can tell you what the economy is going to do.
folks mechanics
I think it comes down to the mechanics of how folks were counted.
basis begun economic entire freeing generally growth high less living low periods productive resources rising stronger surprise
Freeing up less productive resources by accomplishing more with less is the entire basis for rising living standards. It shouldn't come as a surprise that stronger periods of economic growth have generally begun during periods of high unemployment, not low unemployment.
assumed energy fed prices quarter reasonable rise view weakness
The Fed has assumed that the weakness in the first quarter was temporary. This confirms that. The reasonable view was you don't have a one-third rise in energy prices without consequences.
arguing both data literally month people prices seen shown sides stop victory
It's more of a victory lap. Literally a month ago people were arguing that prices would not stop going up. Now, data we would have killed for two years ago is seen as the end of the world. But alarmists on both sides of this thing have been shown to be wrong.
drivers growth half leaving recovery sources
Many of the understandable sources of recovery have been expended in the first half of 2002, leaving growth drivers into 2003 a mystery.
affects energy forecasts growth
I think energy affects us at every price. As we go marginally higher, growth forecasts get marginally weaker,
confidence coverage effect emotional hurricane impact katrina low month news seeing september short spending television wake
Seeing a two-year low in confidence in the wake of Hurricane Katrina isn't that surprising. The news in the month of September has been terrible. The television coverage and the emotional impact of the story has a big effect on confidence in the short run. But spending has been inconsistent with these confidence numbers.
accept bounce categories certain continue fact gone happily hope industries insurance job political wait whether
It comes down to a political choice, ... whether this is the kind of thing where you happily wait and continue unemployment insurance in the hope that certain industries bounce back cyclically, or you accept the fact that certain job categories are gone for good.
anybody dealing economy match produce stretched thinks time until
It will be a long time until anybody thinks the economy is stretched and can't produce enough to match demand. We could be dealing with it for all of 2004, certainly.
advantages large periods slump
After periods of a large slump in employment, there may be advantages to canvassing homes,
broken exports flat month running second trade
Exports were flat for a second month running and that has been what is most broken in the trade picture.
assuming counted department gave guidance held job labor orleans workers
The Labor Department gave guidance that workers held on payrolls would be counted as employed, even if they couldn't be on the job. Just assuming that everyone in New Orleans was out of a job was not the way to go.