Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
drag gain good larger october offset portion possible rise seemed
However, a much larger drag seemed possible after the October surge, and a good portion of the rise will be offset by a gain in inventories in the quarter.
data fed markets month unlikely worry
It's very unlikely for Fed to worry about month to month data changes, or even two months, as the markets do.
benchmark case forecasts january underlying
Benchmark revisions could completely recast underlying data, in which case January forecasts won't be useful.
below economy fairly far financial looks weak
This is a fairly big negative, correlated to other unfortunate news, like weak financial markets, which have their own impact. So far it still looks like the economy is growing, but below trend.
business decisions flat government growing near neither nor quarter spending term third weak
Consumption is growing, government outlays are growing and the third quarter will look very strong. But going forward, business spending is flat and decisions are being deferred. That can keep us weak for the near term -- neither contracting nor expanding.
billion build companies declines demand growth inventory per quarter rate second third
We had unintentional inventory declines in the second and third quarters, which is what you would typically get in a recession. I think companies will need to build $50 billion per quarter in inventories, even if the demand growth rate is just 3.5 percent.
gas pose prices
We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point.
crude forecasts gas move oil pose prices recession
We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point. There have been botched forecasts of a recession at every $10 move (higher) in crude oil futures.
decline employment expecting
We already were expecting a 5,000-job decline in manufacturing employment in May.
data december difficult economic financial markets month raising rates winter
Year-end financial markets can be difficult, and winter economic data is difficult to read. It makes more sense that December will be month they skip. You don't want to be raising rates into what can be an illiquid market.
business continue cycle expansion expect fed fighting increased market policy somewhat successful visibility
We continue to expect a long, successful business cycle expansion amid well-known challenges. However, visibility has been somewhat reduced, and the Fed is not fighting off increased market expectations of policy tightening.
everywhere fact improvement notion spending tech
This notion that there's just too much tech everywhere contrasts with the fact that there's actually been a spending improvement,
credit gives healing nobody saw
We saw a lot of healing going on in 2002, and nobody gives any credit to it.
areas data included surprise
Today's data included well-known as well as surprise areas of weakness.