Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
decline employment expecting
We already were expecting a 5,000-job decline in manufacturing employment in May.
drivers growth half leaving recovery sources
Many of the understandable sources of recovery have been expended in the first half of 2002, leaving growth drivers into 2003 a mystery.
amount month september tremendous weather
September was a month where we thought there was a tremendous amount of weather impact,
despair looks reason utter
There's no reason for utter despair, but this looks like a big exaggeration.
business decisions flat government growing near neither nor quarter spending term third weak
Consumption is growing, government outlays are growing and the third quarter will look very strong. But going forward, business spending is flat and decisions are being deferred. That can keep us weak for the near term -- neither contracting nor expanding.
estimates ugly
Estimates have to come down. We're in for an ugly preannouncement season.
coming energy headline high inflation slow
Even if energy hangs out at these historically high levels, headline inflation should slow down in the coming year.
confidence coverage effect emotional hurricane impact katrina low month news seeing september short spending television wake
Seeing a two-year low in confidence in the wake of Hurricane Katrina isn't that surprising. The news in the month of September has been terrible. The television coverage and the emotional impact of the story has a big effect on confidence in the short run. But spending has been inconsistent with these confidence numbers.
everywhere fact improvement notion spending tech
This notion that there's just too much tech everywhere contrasts with the fact that there's actually been a spending improvement,
below economy fairly far financial looks weak
This is a fairly big negative, correlated to other unfortunate news, like weak financial markets, which have their own impact. So far it still looks like the economy is growing, but below trend.
comforting entirely information turn worry year
This is not entirely comforting but you'd need a lot more information than one month's PPI at the turn of the year to worry about inflation,
advantages large periods slump
After periods of a large slump in employment, there may be advantages to canvassing homes,
benefits cracked fall fears quite worst
At worst it's a wash-out, ... I don't think the fears or the benefits of the dollar's fall are really quite as much as they're cracked up to be.
fact hit june orders wall
The fact is orders just hit a wall in June and July.