Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
confidence core data ease economy healthy investor markets otherwise quite recovery supporting wonder worked
While the U.S. economy is still transitioning, and will for some time, data that should be supporting confidence in the recovery have not worked to ease investor concerns. We have to wonder if markets won't derail an otherwise quite healthy recovery in much of the core of the U.S. economy.
changes data employment expected hours providing slightly stronger thus weaker
While we don't take monthly changes in employment too seriously, today's data were slightly stronger than expected on hiring, but slightly weaker on hours and utilization, thus providing a 'growth positive' outlook.
again along benchmark change changes payroll picture question
Years from now, new benchmark revisions will come along and change the whole picture again -- which begs the question of how important these monthly payroll changes are. I think it's irresponsible to make too much of these reports.
basis broader fed future goes language managing market mean might nearly next points rates regarding week whether
Whether the Fed goes 25 or 50 basis points next week might mean something for managing market psychology, but it doesn't mean nearly as much for the broader economy. Their language regarding their future considerations on rates is what should matter.
continue drag economy higher larger oil prices summer
We're getting higher and higher oil prices each day and you'll continue to see a larger drag on the economy through the summer months.
bad condition data february indicative jobs large losing march several underlying
There are several large drags, in a statistical sense. The underlying condition is that we're probably losing jobs. But the February and March data are not indicative of how bad it really is.
action change markets
There is no change in course, and markets have already priced in more action.
ahead creating demand fast jobs month moving supply
What's most important is that we've got demand and supply moving ahead fast enough that we're absorbing and creating jobs month in and month out -- that's not something to lament.
bad carrying data days news past reaction
The reaction to this data in the past would have been much more positive. These days only bad news is carrying weight.
activity began bottom business catch clean confidence consumer cycle data durable economic entirely eventually expecting gains goods growth june moderate modest pointing time
We're not expecting an entirely clean read for the durable goods report. The business confidence data began to bottom at the end of June and that's encouraging. We probably will see modest gains in consumer activity and eventually the business cycle will catch up to that. But so far, everything right now is pointing to frustrating moderate economic growth for the time being,
boom bust consumer falling since single spending year
We haven't had a single year of falling consumer spending since 1938. There's no boom or bust in consumer spending.
fact hit june orders wall
The fact is orders just hit a wall in June and July.
considered costs fact fantastic income living lower output recovering time
The fact that we can lower living costs at a time when output and income are recovering should be considered fantastic news.