Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
boom bust consumer falling since single spending year
We haven't had a single year of falling consumer spending since 1938. There's no boom or bust in consumer spending.
economy help improvement
In some industries, there's no improvement and the economy is not going to help them.
demand employment growth heading labor seen stays strong towards year
If demand stays strong and productivity growth slows considerably, this could be a year that could be seen as heading towards traditional overheating of the labor market, with big employment gains,
drag gain good larger october offset portion possible rise seemed
However, a much larger drag seemed possible after the October surge, and a good portion of the rise will be offset by a gain in inventories in the quarter.
benchmark decline fit future household measure perfect seen
That kind of decline is a perfect fit with what we've seen in the household survey's measure of employment, ... if not in February, then in future benchmark revisions.
arguing both data literally month people prices seen shown sides stop victory
It's more of a victory lap. Literally a month ago people were arguing that prices would not stop going up. Now, data we would have killed for two years ago is seen as the end of the world. But alarmists on both sides of this thing have been shown to be wrong.
data fed markets month unlikely worry
It's very unlikely for Fed to worry about month to month data changes, or even two months, as the markets do.
assuming counted department gave guidance held job labor orleans workers
The Labor Department gave guidance that workers held on payrolls would be counted as employed, even if they couldn't be on the job. Just assuming that everyone in New Orleans was out of a job was not the way to go.
amount february snap tremendous volatility widening
There's a lot of month-to-month volatility in these numbers, ... You had a tremendous amount of widening in February and then a snap back in March.
buy cars confidence decision people takes
It takes a lot of confidence to buy cars and homes; people don't make that kind of decision on a whim.
accept bounce categories certain continue fact gone happily hope industries insurance job political wait whether
It comes down to a political choice, ... whether this is the kind of thing where you happily wait and continue unemployment insurance in the hope that certain industries bounce back cyclically, or you accept the fact that certain job categories are gone for good.
barrel economy move next oil prices
If you can tell me where the next move in oil prices is going to be -- up to $60 a barrel or down to $20 -- I can tell you what the economy is going to do.
below data decent fell june labor
If you look at labor demand, you should be getting a decent trend. It was only June data that fell below that trend.
available pool potential rare
It's one of those rare Goldilocks reports, ... The idea here that there is still potential slack, the pool of available labor.