Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
continue drag economy higher larger oil prices summer
We're getting higher and higher oil prices each day and you'll continue to see a larger drag on the economy through the summer months.
confidence coverage effect emotional hurricane impact katrina low month news seeing september short spending television wake
Seeing a two-year low in confidence in the wake of Hurricane Katrina isn't that surprising. The news in the month of September has been terrible. The television coverage and the emotional impact of the story has a big effect on confidence in the short run. But spending has been inconsistent with these confidence numbers.
beneath demand faster moving production rate
Beneath the surface, production and inventory, here and abroad, are moving up faster than the rate of demand growth,
below data decent fell june labor
If you look at labor demand, you should be getting a decent trend. It was only June data that fell below that trend.
economy help improvement
In some industries, there's no improvement and the economy is not going to help them.
benchmark decline fit future household measure perfect seen
That kind of decline is a perfect fit with what we've seen in the household survey's measure of employment, ... if not in February, then in future benchmark revisions.
coming energy headline high inflation slow
Even if energy hangs out at these historically high levels, headline inflation should slow down in the coming year.
data economic guide month noted poor single time
He has time over time noted a single month of economic data is a poor guide to the future,
estimates ugly
Estimates have to come down. We're in for an ugly preannouncement season.
despair looks reason utter
There's no reason for utter despair, but this looks like a big exaggeration.
available pool potential rare
It's one of those rare Goldilocks reports, ... The idea here that there is still potential slack, the pool of available labor.
demand employment growth heading labor seen stays strong towards year
If demand stays strong and productivity growth slows considerably, this could be a year that could be seen as heading towards traditional overheating of the labor market, with big employment gains,
benefits cracked fall fears quite worst
At worst it's a wash-out, ... I don't think the fears or the benefits of the dollar's fall are really quite as much as they're cracked up to be.
difference number outlook
Friday's number is not going to make much of a difference for the outlook for the economy.