Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
continue drag economy higher larger oil prices summer
We're getting higher and higher oil prices each day and you'll continue to see a larger drag on the economy through the summer months.
data economic guide month noted poor single time
He has time over time noted a single month of economic data is a poor guide to the future,
damaging pace risk seen sign urgency
I don't' think we've seen any sign here that there is an urgency to risk damaging the pace of the upturn. Why rush, why panic?
barrel economy move next oil prices
If you can tell me where the next move in oil prices is going to be -- up to $60 a barrel or down to $20 -- I can tell you what the economy is going to do.
folks mechanics
I think it comes down to the mechanics of how folks were counted.
economy help improvement
In some industries, there's no improvement and the economy is not going to help them.
benchmark decline fit future household measure perfect seen
That kind of decline is a perfect fit with what we've seen in the household survey's measure of employment, ... if not in February, then in future benchmark revisions.
coming energy headline high inflation slow
Even if energy hangs out at these historically high levels, headline inflation should slow down in the coming year.
estimates ugly
Estimates have to come down. We're in for an ugly preannouncement season.
despair looks reason utter
There's no reason for utter despair, but this looks like a big exaggeration.
available pool potential rare
It's one of those rare Goldilocks reports, ... The idea here that there is still potential slack, the pool of available labor.
gas pose prices
We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point.
again along benchmark change changes payroll picture question
Years from now, new benchmark revisions will come along and change the whole picture again -- which begs the question of how important these monthly payroll changes are. I think it's irresponsible to make too much of these reports.
basis broader fed future goes language managing market mean might nearly next points rates regarding week whether
Whether the Fed goes 25 or 50 basis points next week might mean something for managing market psychology, but it doesn't mean nearly as much for the broader economy. Their language regarding their future considerations on rates is what should matter.