Vince Farrell
Vince Farrell
building economy terrible
We've been building to this for some time. The economy is in a slowdown but it's not in a terrible situation.
fed financial interest months moves rates stocks tend work
Financial stocks tend to do well when interest rates are being lowered. Interest rate moves by the Fed take about 12 months before they work their way through the economy.
couple gains hear next nobody wants
But nobody wants to hear about gains over the next couple of years,
build correlate goes growth guy match mix period style value wealth worst
Mix and match the risk. If you do it well, your growth guy is not going to correlate with your value guy -- but it will keep you in the game, ... If you're all in one style and it goes bad, that's the worst thing you can do if you want to build wealth over a long period of time.
lower might
We might get to the lower 8,000's before we get through with this.
companies couple economy energy fairly financial key last quite reasonably side somewhat stocks weeks
On the other side of the ledger, most of the companies in the old economy are fairly reasonably priced. So, a couple of weeks ago we started to see a shift. First, the energy stocks did somewhat better. Then, the pharmaceutical stocks had quite a run. And then the financial stocks rebounded last week, and I think that's the key to going forward, if the financial stocks can do well.
companies expected sell tech
The tech companies are going to have to be a lot better than expected to keep this up. I say sell this tech rally.
annual declining increasing inevitably percent price production rate
Production is declining at about a 4 percent annual rate right now while consumption is increasing between 2 and 4 percent. So inevitably the price is going to have to go up.
business depending exposure good indeed move stocks tend time toward
They may or may not have exposure to the hurricanes depending on where their business is written, ... But it's psychologically a good time to move in, because that's when these stocks tend to be toward their bottoms, and indeed they are right now.
expose job levels quit rich risk
You're not going to get rich by Tuesday, it's going to take a long time, ... Don't quit your day job and don't expose yourself to levels of risk you can't tolerate.
bottom earnings line
The bottom line is earnings will be good.
best company financial indeed insurance market stocks trades
AIG trades at a market multiple, and it is indeed the best insurance company in the world, in my opinion. But financial stocks rarely, if ever, trade at market multiples.
goes gross stock
as go Intel's gross margins, so goes Intel's stock price.
average bottom encouraged individual process stocks
I was really encouraged by yesterday's move. I don't know about the average - the average is in the process of bottoming - but it may well be that the average can kind of bottom out, individual stocks are going to go off on their own, up or down.