Vince Farrell
Vince Farrell
absurd broaden difficult ghost markets money point reached stocks tech undergoing
I think it's going to be a difficult year. We're undergoing a change. I think the markets will broaden and some tech stocks will suffer. In my opinion, they've reached a point of absurd valuation. These stocks are going to give up the ghost with money going into other stocks.
ahead cuts generally hold move rate stocks until wait
I think we have to wait until 2002 for the Fed's rate cuts to take hold and stocks generally move ahead of the economy,
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Financial stocks tend to do well when interest rates are being lowered. Interest rate moves by the Fed take about 12 months before they work their way through the economy.
fully stocks ways
I think we have a ways to go on this. Stocks are fully valued.
business depending exposure good indeed move stocks tend time toward
They may or may not have exposure to the hurricanes depending on where their business is written, ... But it's psychologically a good time to move in, because that's when these stocks tend to be toward their bottoms, and indeed they are right now.
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I think there is an era of optimism that pervades the financial community in the United States. There's just this feeling that stocks are going to go up, and up, and up.
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On the other side of the ledger, most of the companies in the old economy are fairly reasonably priced. So, a couple of weeks ago we started to see a shift. First, the energy stocks did somewhat better. Then, the pharmaceutical stocks had quite a run. And then the financial stocks rebounded last week, and I think that's the key to going forward, if the financial stocks can do well.
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I don't think bank stocks are going to plummet, and I think you probably should take advantage of the weakness to start to add to your portfolio,
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I think what really triggered the rally was the surprise cut by (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan in interest rates. But earnings have been good enough to continue the rally. Now the concern going forward is: Can earnings grow in 1999.
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I think you ought to take advantage of whatever rally, if you have one today, to trim whatever holdings you have that may be a disproportionate percentage in your portfolio. You know, I've been negative on the very richly priced high tech, not all tech, but the very richly priced high tech, and I don't think it is too late to sell these.
economy greenspan looks
The economy looks good. Greenspan told us that.
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Hughes and Delphi add up to over $40 a share in value then you're buying the auto company for 80 minus the 40, or about 40 bucks.
bottom earnings line
The bottom line is earnings will be good.
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Most of the exploratory dollars are going to go to the great big prospects. And I think this will really impact the oil service companies' ability to continue their profit growth.