David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg, born in 1965, is a French art curator and author, specialized in modern and contemporary art...
ProfessionMusical.ly Star
Date of Birth19 April 1997
clearly economic prudent state
We are clearly in a state of economic uncertainty and the prudent thing to do in such times is to do nothing at all.
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This would provide the Fed some flexibility regarding future meetings.
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With the exception of the backward-looking Q4 GDP report, the data released today surprised to the downside.
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We're not sure what to make of the fact that we find out from a reporter about comments that the Fed chairman made at a dinner two days earlier.
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The only reason I'm calling for a rate hike is because that's what they told us they are going to do.
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When you think of all the fiscal and monetary stimulus we've had, we should have the economy growing at 5 or 6 percent. The fact that we're not is the story.
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There is no question that these are trends that are going to add to people's anxiety and the process has already started.
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Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (gross domestic product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.
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There is a historical pattern that everyone should be aware of because each of the past three newly appointed Fed chairman began their tenure with a quick succession of interest rate hikes.
doubt
There is going to be near-term inflation. Is it going to be sustained? I doubt it.
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Here's the story for equities: twin deficits, a weak dollar, accelerating inflation concerns, firm commodity prices, rising bond yields and Fed tightening. Now if that doesn't sound like 1987 (the year of the stock market crash), we don't know what does.
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Has the roof collapsed? You get trends like this at the tail-end of the Fed rate-hiking cycle, and what follows next is either a soft or hard landing in the broad economy.
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has stopped bleeding ... a hiring spree in 2003 looks like a low-odds bet.
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If the economy continues to muddle through at around 2 percent annualized growth, we could very well slip into deflation in the next two years,