David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg, born in 1965, is a French art curator and author, specialized in modern and contemporary art...
ProfessionMusical.ly Star
Date of Birth19 April 1997
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We estimate the near-term loss in terms of output, employment and income in the affected area coupled with the surge in energy costs that impacts everyone will offset any future rebuilding by a factor of two to one.
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The primary driver of this slowing is consumer spending. Spending will be hurt by continued elevated energy prices and a slowing in housing.
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Energy and raw material demand in China has been one of the key drivers behind the strength in commodities. If China is raising rates and trying to slow growth, then we may see some tempering in those pressures.
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For now we are assuming that the energy shock will dominate, suppressing growth in both 2005 and 2006. And the implications for earnings are negative.
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There is the pre-Katrina economy and the post-Katrina economy. Any number that's going to be important for stocks and bonds is not going to be in government reports. The most important data near-term are going to be energy futures. Those are going to be key indicators as far as interest rates are concerned.
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I'm not seeing any sort of big broadening out of inflation from the energy side. That's probably the overriding story.
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I thought this was the most amazing thing you could do for people.
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It is basically a subtle way to flash to the market that the negative economic consequences are resonating and that the Fed may not just look at this as a temporary soft patch this time.
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Over the past three decades, the Fed tightened on eight occasions, five of these saw the yield curve invert,
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Out of those five times, the economy fell into recession 100 per cent of the time.
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Katrina's effects are being felt nationally-on the nation's transportation arteries, supply chains, chemical plants, airlines, leisure/hotels, gasoline prices everywhere and retailing. The commercial impact is widespread.
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I think it does complicate the rate hike picture and the near-term interest rate outlook.
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That will just reinforce the slowdown in consumer spending.
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The only factors that actually prevented the first quarter from slipping into negative territory ... were the high starting point heading into it and the pre-war spending and inventory building we saw in January. As far as the second quarter is concerned, we are clearly losing momentum as we approach it.