David Seiders
David Seiders
consistent orderly process recent
The recent stabilization is consistent with the orderly cooling-down process that NAHB has been forecasting.
best certainly cooling drop expect healthy housing market months pace percent quite reason recent sales second strong third throughout year
While new-home sales have been quite strong throughout 2005, we see a cooling of the market to a healthy and more sustainable pace in the months ahead, as substantiated by recent surveys of our builders. For 2006, we expect to see a 6 percent to 7 percent drop in sales, but certainly no reason for alarm. This would make 2006 the second or third best year in housing history.
decline february housing normal returned suggesting
It is a time-tested pattern. February has essentially returned to normal conditions, suggesting to me that we will see a substantial decline in housing starts.
certainly inevitable rate record return seeing sign slow terms
We're certainly seeing a record rate of return in real terms (after factoring out inflation), and there has been very little sign of deceleration. But it is probably inevitable that some of this will slow down.
bad conditions country january parts unusually weather
We had unusually bad weather in many parts of the country in December, and the conditions in January were extraordinarily warm.
declines followed forecasts home housing percent sales smaller starts
Our forecasts show 6 percent to 7 percent declines in home sales and single-family housing starts in 2006, followed by smaller declines in 2007.
sting takes weather winter
Winter weather really takes the sting out of these declines.
assessment home housing overall quarter sales sector terms third
My overall assessment of the housing sector is that we probably fundamentally topped out in the third quarter of 2005 in terms of home sales and housing production.
healthy hold last pace
We can't hold at the pace we had last year. It's not going to be the end of the world -- it's going to be a simmering down to a very healthy pace.
start
When you start to see cancellations, you really get worried.
current economic next recession
We're now in the 'middle innings' of the current economic expansion, and the next economic recession is not yet in sight.
beginning cooling housing starts
We see a flattening of housing starts and the beginning of a cooling process.
balanced buyers market switching
We are switching from a red-hot sellers' market to a market that is better balanced between buyers and sellers.
focus government looking lots meaningful report step subject trends volatility
When looking at these numbers, you have to step back and focus more on trends than on month-to-month shifts to see meaningful patterns. This government report traditionally has lots of month-to-month volatility and is subject to substantial revision.