Donald Selkin
Donald Selkin
completed extent fed justifies rally reaction stunned
It's such a knee-jerk reaction. I don't think that what the Fed said justifies the kind of reaction we saw. I would like to think that we could rally back after the certification is completed tomorrow, but I don't know. I am just stunned by the extent of this decline. Hopefully, it was a one-time reaction.
economy-and-economics fed meant reassuring result
I think the Fed meant to say something reassuring about the economy, but the result was very confusing.
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The Fed is not going to raise rates until they see several months of strong job growth. And even if they do raise rates slightly, the rates will still be right near these historic lows. GDP this morning was not as strong as expected, but you had the other two economic reports that were good.
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I'm happy that things are going up in the markets but when things get too bullish and too, I don't know if they're exuberant, but too optimistic, someone will find something between the lines on the Fed statement saying, 'but they said this, they cautioned here', maybe to have to be vigilant, so people might use that as an excuse to stay profits.
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The big hurdles next week are the Fed meeting Tuesday and the jobs report Friday. The market reaction to those events may set the tone for the month and determine whether we'll see a November rally.
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I hate to say it, but maybe there's a bet that if Kerry wins, (former Secretary of the Treasury) Robert Rubin will take over as Fed chairman, and the market would like that.
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The silver lining on this is that it confirms that the Federal Reserve will not be raising interest rates anytime soon, which is good news for the market.
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Normally, lower rates would be seen as a positive for stocks, but in this case, it seems like the Fed is behind the curve and the Fed is supposed to be leading us out of this. For months people have been talking about the disconnect between the economy and stock prices. Now it's starting to seem like that disconnect is narrowing.
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The market really can't advance that strongly as long as the Fed is raising rates.
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It's two things. The old cliche is that the market hates uncertainty. So this removes the uncertainty.
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If you're in a traditional balanced fund or a traditional basket of old-line stocks, you're losing money.
collapsed market sideways
The market hasn't collapsed or anything, but we've been going sideways for awhile.
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Friday's Dow movement shows that the market is in an uptrend. That's encouraging. The market is trying to anticipate a recovery before the economy.
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People are frustrated. The pattern has been a couple of days of rallies on a little good news and then it fizzles out. There's no reason to make big commitments with all of this unresolved. The hope now is that we can dig in our heels at key support levels and find some balance.