Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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Yesterday's weak ISM number shows the manufacturing sector is just limping along. Another report this week suggests that Friday's August employment report may not be very good. Worries about the economy resurface and are reflected in stocks,
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Hardware, software and semiconductors are the three top-performing groups right now, and there has been a decline in oil prices. These things are pushing the markets up.
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These numbers were highly impacted if not distorted by Hurricane Katrina.
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I think the market has managed the inevitable profit-taking very well, but there's still a lot of skepticism out there,
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It's a trading rally, and not much more than that. If there's anything you can hang your hat on, it's that with every passing day, some investors become convinced that there's not going to be any serious fallout or damage to the economy or earnings due to the hurricanes.
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Investors become very guarded at the point that they think oil prices could take a chunk out of economic growth,
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It injects some uncertainty. The worry is the Chinese economy will slow too much, and that will send markets down worldwide.
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I think it's a bygone conclusion that they will raise rates in January, but there's also debate about whether they'll raise rates in March.
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I like the large-cap technology names. Over a three- to five-year period they are going to be real winners.
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Speaking of financial markets as a whole --stocks, bonds and the dollar -- 'volatile' is not strong enough a word to describe them.
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Like any indicator, whether it's the Super Bowl or anything else, it's sometimes right and sometimes wrong. It's just not very rational to conclude that if January is a bad month, the market will have a bad year.
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Everything is connected but it is anyone's guess how long the phenomena will continue.
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The fundamental premise in this business is you cannot be stuck in this business. You can buy stocks for the long haul, but if the market breaks down, you're going to suffer. You're going to pay for it.
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It has been a solid performance, but there's still a healthy level of skepticism because stocks aren't cheap right now.