James Awad
James Awad
anybody assumption election investing skating thin win
Anybody investing on the assumption of who's going to win the election is skating on thin ice.
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This could be a sign for investors about where to put there money.
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This doesn't mean you have to pour everything into beverages and foods. You can still find quality companies that also benefit from an improving economy.
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They got pounded, ... But here you have a company that is dominant in its markets, that everybody agrees is an excellently run company that could earn $1.75 (per share) next year, so it's selling at about 11-times earnings. And it's an acquisition candidate down the road. So you see the theme here is growing earnings, low valuation.
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There are some signs that the economy is not getting worse, in fact it is getting better.
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The profit outlook is not good and is deteriorating. Profit outlook is what drives stock prices.
In the short-term, you have a malaise that's crept into the market.
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It has the potential to diminish economic activity, ... It can't be a positive on the economy.
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If there is one more cut, it is the last one. I don't think people are really going to be looking to the Fed to help us any more,
currency investors looking
Investors will be looking for the implications (of Brazil) on currency markets.
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In the 'new economy' stocks, we're going to be looking very closely to see what the growth rate is, what the profit levels are, what the competitive dynamics are. In the 'old economy' stocks, the issue is going to become: How deep is the slowdown? Where does it end? And so people are going to be doing it stock by stock. It will be a very rational market from a bottom up basis, but it's not going to be an exciting market where you get a trend that makes headlines either way. So I think it'll frustrate both the bulls and the bears.
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But throw in a very visible company lowering its guidance going forward and the focus shifts back to the same problems of an uncertain economy, uncertain earnings and the Middle East problem, which has not changed,
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I don't think the market can make a lot of headway until we get an idea of the depth and breadth of the profit recession.
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It never pays to be too bearish on the American economy for too long,