James Awad
James Awad
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I think retail is going to be a very tough place to make money. What's worrying the market now is -- if the Fed is successful in slowing the economy, what does it mean for profits going forward? And that is apparent - that's more clearly an issue in retail than anyplace else. But it is an issue in the market itself that you're going into a period here where profit growth may decelerate; in fact, could flatten out as you have volume gains decelerate in a slowing economy, but cost increases embedded in from the period when you had a strong economy; and that's not exactly a great prescription for profits, and I think that's troubling the stock market,
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It's not going to make or break a bull or a bear market, but it's a negative.
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But throw in a very visible company lowering its guidance going forward and the focus shifts back to the same problems of an uncertain economy, uncertain earnings and the Middle East problem, which has not changed,
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It never pays to be too bearish on the American economy for too long,
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You're getting a little bit of a setback after two up days, and a sense of people wanting to wait until they hear what the Fed has to say at the Sept. 20th meeting.
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They realize the economy didn't fall apart when oil was at $55 a barrel, and it's not going to fall apart at $59 a barrel,
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The basic factors that caused the market to go down remain in place, and I think those worries are going to be with us for the next couple of months, ... certainly until we get third-quarter earnings reports, and maybe through the election.
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With the election clearing the deck, I think you'll see more momentum. If you're going to have a 10 percent increase in corporate profits next year, I don't see why you couldn't be up 20 percent (in mergers and acquisitions).
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What's gonna happen here is you're going to see a cat and mouse game between Bush and Iraq for some time. I suspect that a month from now we'll be back to where we were yesterday before the letter came out.
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When all is said and done, I think the market will sprint higher toward the end of the year. But it's going to take continued encouraging earnings and economic reports to move it along.
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When all is said and done, third-quarter earnings will probably be good and fourth-quarter forecasts good enough to cool some of the worries about inflationary pressures hurting corporate profits,
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You have to have a powerful earnings turn around this year to justify gains from current levels,
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This stock is down from over $50 a share, but is just a great long-term, growth stock, ... We think it will go back to over $50 a share, at some point, and back to almost where it came public. It may be dead money for a month or two, but I think eventually you will make three or four times your money on it.
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While there is an economic impact, they are able to grow the company reasonably, ... I would say 10 percent in terms of cash earnings this year, but most other companies in that field have been acquired.