James Awad
James Awad
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This market isn't going to turn around until investors see the whites of the eyes of a profit recovery, and you're not likely to see that until the fourth quarter.
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The driving force for the market over coming weeks is going to be earnings -- what were the first quarter results and what is the outlook. You need strong earnings to overcome the headwinds of higher interest rates and inflation, because those aren't going away.
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I think it's unlikely that you'll get a bear market because the fundamentals are too good. On the other hand, you're not going to make new highs in the market as long as we have uncertainty in terms of interest rates,
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The building blocks of a bear market are not there. It's a correction and it will probably go on for a little bit longer, but I think by the end of April the flood of good corporate earnings reports will overwhelm the negative sentiment that you are getting now.
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The vulnerability is in individual stocks rather than in the market, ... Any company that misses its earnings is going to get brutally punished. The market has very low tolerance for companies that miss their earnings, and it goes back to the fact that everybody's paid on performance and it's difficult for people to have a long-term view.
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The risk is we are staring down the barrel of negative pre-announcements, so the market has the potential to be disappointed short term.
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The market was in La-La land the last few days. We had some good earnings yesterday and we got a positive spasm in response to it in a deeply oversold market.
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The market needs to walk a line between too little growth and too much growth, between profits and interest rates. The jobs report tilted the market toward too little growth.
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Once the Russell 2000 starts to move because it is fundamentally more attractive, you'll see a lot of money chasing limited market capitalization stocks. You can get a very significant move in the Russell 2000 in a very short time and I would anticipate that happening starting very soon.
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The market doesn't like uncertainty, so it's going to try to figure this out. We could see investors using this opportunity to do some weeding of their portfolios,
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North Fork Bancorp stock is selling at about 20. We think its fair value would be about 30. But meanwhile, you're getting a 3 percent dividend yield and it's selling at 10 times earnings. Demographically, it's a very attractive area. So, your risk in buying North Fork is that you're a little bit early and the market doesn't care about value stocks for a while. And of course, in a period of rising rates, financial stocks don't do particularly well. But, ... if you buy it and put it away, you'll end up making 50 percent from current levels over a 12 to 18 month period.
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The market has done better than I would have thought, ... You've got some signs that the economy is starting to stabilize -- it looks like the consumer is counteracting the negative effects of the capital spending slowdown in technology.
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The market has done better than I would have thought. You've got some signs that the economy is starting to stabilize -- it looks like the consumer is counteracting the negative effects of the capital spending slowdown in technology.
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This is a low-cost way to play the eventual turnaround in technology, ... They're a very strong distributor of hardware and software products and it's gaining market share on its competitors. The stock is $25 on $2.35 of earnings and you're not taking product risk -- you're 11 times earnings on Tech Data for the company that's got a 20 percent long-term growth rate.