Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
biggest consumers despite evidence fact fixed lining pay prices short
In the short run, people's consumption is essentially fixed for gasoline. The biggest evidence of this is despite the fact we've got prices at $3, $4 or $5 a gallon, we've got consumers lining up to pay for it.
critical cut despite disruption energy event growth haunts likely next oil quite seems slower specter supply today unlikely
OPEC is likely to be a critical event next week. A cut in production, however, seems quite unlikely despite slower fourth-quarter U.S. GDP growth out today and a well-supplied market. The specter of oil supply disruption haunts energy markets.
behavior changing consumer despite energy high hold relatively spending
Despite high energy prices, consumer spending will hold up relatively well. Consumer behavior is not changing a lot.
believe despite impact market news
Despite the news of escalation, I think the market does not believe it's going to have a real impact on supplies.
economic katrina number resilience robust service shown survey wake
The ISM service survey joins a number of economic indicators that have shown robust economic resilience in the wake of Katrina and Rita,
health likely near overall
In the near term, the overall health of inventories is likely to be important.
held prices worries
Prices are being held up by worries about gasoline.
above justify prices production remain tough
If prices remain above 60 dollars, it will be tough for OPEC to justify a production cut.
companies oil profit stand
The companies stand to do some profit because the oil is already there. All they have to do is take it off the ground.
employment ill
The employment index, however, declined. This could bode ill for October's payrolls.
anticipate bubble homes
If there were a lot of homes in inventory, we could anticipate a bubble bursting, but there isn't,
consuming countries energy moving power shocks supply
Geopolitical power is moving from energy consuming countries to the producers. We may see more of these supply shocks in the years ahead.
accurately captures couple hope market months
After a couple of months of overestimating, we redid our modeling. We hope this more accurately captures what's going on in the market place.
sector seems solid
The manufacturing sector seems to be on a very solid footing.