Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
sector seems solid
The manufacturing sector seems to be on a very solid footing.
critical cut despite disruption energy event growth haunts likely next oil quite seems slower specter supply today unlikely
OPEC is likely to be a critical event next week. A cut in production, however, seems quite unlikely despite slower fourth-quarter U.S. GDP growth out today and a well-supplied market. The specter of oil supply disruption haunts energy markets.
correction further headlines likely move prices seems
A correction seems likely if we don't see a further intensifying of the geopolitical crisis. There will have to be further headlines for prices to move higher.
economic katrina number resilience robust service shown survey wake
The ISM service survey joins a number of economic indicators that have shown robust economic resilience in the wake of Katrina and Rita,
health likely near overall
In the near term, the overall health of inventories is likely to be important.
held prices worries
Prices are being held up by worries about gasoline.
above justify prices production remain tough
If prices remain above 60 dollars, it will be tough for OPEC to justify a production cut.
companies oil profit stand
The companies stand to do some profit because the oil is already there. All they have to do is take it off the ground.
employment ill
The employment index, however, declined. This could bode ill for October's payrolls.
anticipate bubble homes
If there were a lot of homes in inventory, we could anticipate a bubble bursting, but there isn't,
consuming countries energy moving power shocks supply
Geopolitical power is moving from energy consuming countries to the producers. We may see more of these supply shocks in the years ahead.
accurately captures couple hope market months
After a couple of months of overestimating, we redid our modeling. We hope this more accurately captures what's going on in the market place.
disruption few nigerian past physical prices supply
The tangible, physical disruption of Nigerian supply has propped up prices over the past few weeks.
background concern decline economic growth report supplies supporting
Supplies are pretty lush. Once this report is digested we should see a big decline in prices. The geopolitical concern and economic growth are still there in the background supporting prices.