John Ryding
John Ryding
believed claims despite due fewer january level low normal partly remained resulted return typical warm weather
The low level of jobless claims in January was believed to be partly due to unseasonably warm weather that would have resulted in fewer than normal seasonal layoffs. However, despite a return to more seasonally typical weather in February, unemployment claims have remained low.
action case consequences cost course cutting greater rates taking wrong
The consequences of taking the wrong course of action - in this case not cutting rates - are potentially greater than the cost of cutting rates.
beyond inflation looking moved people
I think we've moved beyond the 'flight to quality' stage. People are really looking at the inflation fundamentals.
barrier fed interest lowering rates
There's no barrier to the Fed lowering interest rates significantly.
concerns continues fed maintain production risk sector slack upside
From the Fed's perspective, slack in the production sector continues to diminish, which should maintain Fed concerns about upside risk to inflation.
continues economists economy face fed force further increases labor market markets modest remains reminder running serve strong tight wage
The labor force surge should serve as a reminder that the economy is further from running out of labor than the economists at the Fed think. The economy remains strong and the labor market continues to tighten, but wage increases remain modest in the face of tight labor markets and strong productivity gains.
energy perception prices
Energy prices do matter, especially to the public's perception of inflation.
fed influence issue level market stock
The level of the stock market is always an issue for the Fed but I don't think it's such an issue that it's going to influence Fed policy.
bond buy good mania market month move upwards
The bond market had a pretty good move upwards yesterday, but I don't think we're going to get back to that kind of mania to buy Treasuries that we had in the month of September.
core energy inflation overall prices pushing remains risk
With energy prices pushing up overall inflation again, there remains the risk of pass-through into core inflation.
easily energy increase largely report size
This report is largely an energy story, but the size of the increase can't be easily dismissed.
fed funds increasing meeting middle rate rising risk
We see the funds rate rising to 5% by the May 10 FOMC meeting and we see an increasing risk of a 5.25% fed fund rate by the middle of the year.
changes commerce department except figure game heat normal prolonged remember since summer typical weather
You have to remember it's only exceptional and prolonged heat that changes trends, since the Commerce Department seasonally adjusts out all typical heat. The game is to try to figure out if the weather is seasonally abnormal. Except for this week, we've had a pretty normal summer in the Northeast.
details due durable entirely goods january orders report stronger underlying volatility
The plunge in durable goods orders in January is entirely due to volatility in transportation. The underlying details of this report are much stronger than the headline.