John Ryding
John Ryding
fed funds increasing meeting middle rate rising risk
We see the funds rate rising to 5% by the May 10 FOMC meeting and we see an increasing risk of a 5.25% fed fund rate by the middle of the year.
easily energy increase largely report size
This report is largely an energy story, but the size of the increase can't be easily dismissed.
allow doubt economics fed political politics pressure september
There's no doubt there's political pressure on the Fed to do nothing on September 20th. The Fed will allow economics to overrule the politics of the situation.
barrier fed interest lowering rates
There's no barrier to the Fed lowering interest rates significantly.
appears decline growth june labor maintained market payroll pressure putting rate reduced since solid trend wage
The solid trend in payroll growth has been maintained into February. Reduced labor market slack, illustrated by the decline in the unemployment rate since June 2003, appears to be putting upward pressure on wage increases.
albeit contained core inflation informal range remains target
Core inflation remains contained in November, albeit at the upper end of the Feds informal target range of 1-2 pct.
albeit contained core federal inflation informal range remains reserve target
Core inflation remains contained in November, albeit at the upper end of the ( Federal Reserve 's) informal target range of one-two percent.
energy perception prices
Energy prices do matter, especially to the public's perception of inflation.
activism applied applying competition department increasing justice model rather seems
This increasing activism by the Justice Department seems to be applying a model of competition that applied to 19th-century America, rather than 21st-Century America.
above although auto below business consumer edge expect fourth higher hurricane inventory lower percent recovery result slow spending
Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.
although auto change consumer data picture reflect report retail sales since slowing spending weak
Although the retail sales report was not as weak as expected, it does not change the picture of slowing consumer spending growth, especially since the auto sales data do not reflect Detroit's reality.
again bond borrowing compensate continue costs credit cut fed flows hopefully house lack market means november people problems rates remember suspect
This means people will be able to go out and refinance their house where they may not have been able to do before and I think that we have to remember this isn't over. I suspect the Fed will cut rates again in November and that will continue to keep a lid on borrowing costs and hopefully will compensate for some of the lack of credit flows to corporations that problems in the bond market have caused.
accumulate bond doubt hand heading inflation low mind patient positions willing
There is no doubt in my mind that inflation is low and heading lower. I think the patient hand should be willing to accumulate bond positions here.
bond buy good mania market month move upwards
The bond market had a pretty good move upwards yesterday, but I don't think we're going to get back to that kind of mania to buy Treasuries that we had in the month of September.