John Ryding
John Ryding
believe economic favorable growth inflation learn low stay strong until
I think it's something we're going to have to learn to live with until the fundamentals can reassert themselves. But I do believe that the favorable fundamentals of strong U.S. economic growth and low inflation are here to stay for awhile.
doubt economic forced four growth interest job last month per rates
If we hadn't had Asia, there's no doubt that the Fed's economic model, with 350,000 job growth per month in each of the last four months, would have forced interest rates up.
allow doubt economics fed political politics pressure september
There's no doubt there's political pressure on the Fed to do nothing on September 20th. The Fed will allow economics to overrule the politics of the situation.
absent cut data economic fed hold jobs rates sit three unless weak
I think they'll hold unless we see some surprisingly weak economic data on the jobs front, which comes out on Friday. But absent that, I think the Fed is going to be tempted, having cut rates three times, to let things sit a while.
average concerned economic fed further greenspan increase likely rather report signs weakness worrying
With the Fed maintaining an economic-weakness bias, Greenspan is more likely to be concerned with the signs of further economic weakness in this report rather than worrying about the increase in average hourly earnings.
beyond inflation looking moved people
I think we've moved beyond the 'flight to quality' stage. People are really looking at the inflation fundamentals.
december gives greenspan likely meeting november
I think it's much more likely that Greenspan gives us a quarter-point cut, and then comes back at the November or December meeting with another quarter-point cut.
concerned consumer core elevated energy high inflation overall potential prices remain
Overall consumer inflation is still elevated and we remain concerned about the potential for pass-through of high energy prices into core inflation.
activity chicago ended good region year
Manufacturing activity in the Chicago region ended the year with good momentum.
core energy inflation overall prices pushing remains risk
With energy prices pushing up overall inflation again, there remains the risk of pass-through into core inflation.
decline expect fourth growth rebound slow
The decline in productivity was a quirk of the slow growth of GDP in the fourth quarter, which we expect to rebound in the first quarter.
decline expect fourth growth rebound slow
The decline in productivity was a quirk of the slow growth of GDP growth in the fourth quarter, which we expect to rebound in the first quarter.
april bond fed few japanese march ourselves people period relates technical toward weakness
We are going through a period of weakness in March and toward the end of February. And that relates to things like Japanese (fiscal) year-end and a few other technical factors. I think getting on the March 30 FMOC meeting, the Fed (will do) nothing that reassures people . . . and I think we set ourselves up for an April bond rally.
details due durable entirely goods january orders report stronger underlying volatility
The plunge in durable goods orders in January is entirely due to volatility in transportation. The underlying details of this report are much stronger than the headline.