John Ryding
John Ryding
believe economic favorable growth inflation learn low stay strong until
I think it's something we're going to have to learn to live with until the fundamentals can reassert themselves. But I do believe that the favorable fundamentals of strong U.S. economic growth and low inflation are here to stay for awhile.
barrier fed interest lowering rates
There's no barrier to the Fed lowering interest rates significantly.
above although auto below business consumer edge expect fourth higher hurricane inventory lower percent recovery result slow spending
Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.
accumulate bond doubt hand heading inflation low mind patient positions willing
There is no doubt in my mind that inflation is low and heading lower. I think the patient hand should be willing to accumulate bond positions here.
claims consistent creation job level low remained solid
The level of claims remained low and consistent with solid job creation.
believed claims despite due fewer january level low normal partly remained resulted return typical warm weather
The low level of jobless claims in January was believed to be partly due to unseasonably warm weather that would have resulted in fewer than normal seasonal layoffs. However, despite a return to more seasonally typical weather in February, unemployment claims have remained low.
beyond inflation looking moved people
I think we've moved beyond the 'flight to quality' stage. People are really looking at the inflation fundamentals.
december gives greenspan likely meeting november
I think it's much more likely that Greenspan gives us a quarter-point cut, and then comes back at the November or December meeting with another quarter-point cut.
concerned consumer core elevated energy high inflation overall potential prices remain
Overall consumer inflation is still elevated and we remain concerned about the potential for pass-through of high energy prices into core inflation.
activity chicago ended good region year
Manufacturing activity in the Chicago region ended the year with good momentum.
core energy inflation overall prices pushing remains risk
With energy prices pushing up overall inflation again, there remains the risk of pass-through into core inflation.
decline expect fourth growth rebound slow
The decline in productivity was a quirk of the slow growth of GDP in the fourth quarter, which we expect to rebound in the first quarter.
decline expect fourth growth rebound slow
The decline in productivity was a quirk of the slow growth of GDP growth in the fourth quarter, which we expect to rebound in the first quarter.
april bond fed few japanese march ourselves people period relates technical toward weakness
We are going through a period of weakness in March and toward the end of February. And that relates to things like Japanese (fiscal) year-end and a few other technical factors. I think getting on the March 30 FMOC meeting, the Fed (will do) nothing that reassures people . . . and I think we set ourselves up for an April bond rally.