John Ryding
John Ryding
december gives greenspan likely meeting november
I think it's much more likely that Greenspan gives us a quarter-point cut, and then comes back at the November or December meeting with another quarter-point cut.
absent cut data economic fed hold jobs rates sit three unless weak
I think they'll hold unless we see some surprisingly weak economic data on the jobs front, which comes out on Friday. But absent that, I think the Fed is going to be tempted, having cut rates three times, to let things sit a while.
coming corporate example large normally quiet rush supply time
And also there's a large rush of supply of corporate bonds, for example, coming to market. So we're getting a lot of supply this time of year, where normally it would be more quiet time for issuers.
above although auto below business consumer edge expect fourth higher hurricane inventory lower percent recovery result slow spending
Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.
easily energy increase largely report size
This report is largely an energy story, but the size of the increase can't be easily dismissed.
details due durable entirely goods january orders report stronger underlying volatility
The plunge in durable goods orders in January is entirely due to volatility in transportation. The underlying details of this report are much stronger than the headline.
accumulate bond doubt hand heading inflation low mind patient positions willing
There is no doubt in my mind that inflation is low and heading lower. I think the patient hand should be willing to accumulate bond positions here.