John Ryding
John Ryding
absent cut data economic fed hold jobs rates sit three unless weak
I think they'll hold unless we see some surprisingly weak economic data on the jobs front, which comes out on Friday. But absent that, I think the Fed is going to be tempted, having cut rates three times, to let things sit a while.
albeit contained core federal inflation informal range remains reserve target
Core inflation remains contained in November, albeit at the upper end of the ( Federal Reserve 's) informal target range of one-two percent.
barrier fed interest lowering rates
There's no barrier to the Fed lowering interest rates significantly.
concerns continues fed maintain production risk sector slack upside
From the Fed's perspective, slack in the production sector continues to diminish, which should maintain Fed concerns about upside risk to inflation.
continues economists economy face fed force further increases labor market markets modest remains reminder running serve strong tight wage
The labor force surge should serve as a reminder that the economy is further from running out of labor than the economists at the Fed think. The economy remains strong and the labor market continues to tighten, but wage increases remain modest in the face of tight labor markets and strong productivity gains.
fed influence issue level market stock
The level of the stock market is always an issue for the Fed but I don't think it's such an issue that it's going to influence Fed policy.
activism applied applying competition department increasing justice model rather seems
This increasing activism by the Justice Department seems to be applying a model of competition that applied to 19th-century America, rather than 21st-Century America.
cheating goes history price problems time
It's not the first time in the history of OPEC that we've had problems with cutbacks, and when the price goes up, then the cheating starts.
coming corporate example large normally quiet rush supply time
And also there's a large rush of supply of corporate bonds, for example, coming to market. So we're getting a lot of supply this time of year, where normally it would be more quiet time for issuers.
above although auto below business consumer edge expect fourth higher hurricane inventory lower percent recovery result slow spending
Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.
albeit contained core inflation informal range remains target
Core inflation remains contained in November, albeit at the upper end of the Feds informal target range of 1-2 pct.
concerned consumer core elevated energy high inflation overall potential prices remain
Overall consumer inflation is still elevated and we remain concerned about the potential for pass-through of high energy prices into core inflation.
activity chicago ended good region year
Manufacturing activity in the Chicago region ended the year with good momentum.
claims consistent creation job level low remained solid
The level of claims remained low and consistent with solid job creation.