Ken Goldstein
Ken Goldstein
Ken Goldstein, also known as Kene G and Jack Dempsey, born June 1969, is an American film and television writer, producer, director and occasional actor. He is a co-founder of Planet illogica and CEO of The Six Shooter Company and the author of the book series, The Way of the Nerd. Goldstein is an active speaker at conferences and festivals, universities and private and public institutions. He has been a featured and Keynote speaker in Brazil, Australia, France and Germany...
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If we were starting from scratch and had to put all these systems in, that would be costly, but the incremental cost of making sure we have the latest version of protection against the latest version of a virus is not really that much.
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Historically, job advertising drops off in the months of November and December. This online series does not have a long enough history to seasonally adjust the data. However, we know from The Conference Board's long running Help-Wanted Index for print ads, as well as the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' job vacancy index (JOLTS) that businesses typically decrease their recruitment in the last two months of the year. This seasonal November decline typically reflects the Thanksgiving holiday and a slowdown in recruitments after a seasonal upturn in the late summer/early fall. Year-end budget constraints may also play a role if funds are short for paid advertisements. Nationally, the downturn in new online ad volume the week before and the week of Thanksgiving more than offset the modest increases in the other weeks in November.
I don't know where they are going to stop, and I don't know that they know.
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If the economy cools a little, the labor market may also cool. Even if energy prices were not going through the roof, the biggest road block would still be the cost of a new hire.
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Given that we're at least a couple of months away from turnaround in the labor market, the fact that consumer confidence is not doing much worse than treading water is actually a good-news story.
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With slower hiring, and indications that hiring might remain soft in the months ahead, the economy could struggle, setting up a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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The recovery in the leading index could indicate that the economy is poised for growth by late summer. There appears to be enough economic demand to end the slide in industrial production, though no strong rebound appears in sight.
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What we are going to get is people grumbling about it -- maybe buying one less latte -- but they're not going to forego buying that new TV.
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We might still be seeing some small declines in manufacturing overall, but even that's a mix. This year you'll see more hiring in nondurable manufacturing sectors such as in chemicals, in rubber, in plastics, in paper.
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Nothing is going to happen in terms of improving confidence until something happens in terms of an improving labor market, and that might well take until after New Year's.
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Signals for the immediate future point to continued expansion, although not at the breakneck pace of the fourth quarter of 1999, ... The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion continues to be interest-rate increases and the prospect of still more Federal Reserve Board action.
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We might be out of recession already. The recovery could be more vigorous than earlier anticipated.
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Severe weather conditions and uncertainty over interest rates may help explain why the rise in the indicators was cut short.
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One of the things this points out is that we're on the road to recovery, but the road is going to be bumpy -- it always is.