Ken Goldstein
Ken Goldstein
Ken Goldstein, also known as Kene G and Jack Dempsey, born June 1969, is an American film and television writer, producer, director and occasional actor. He is a co-founder of Planet illogica and CEO of The Six Shooter Company and the author of the book series, The Way of the Nerd. Goldstein is an active speaker at conferences and festivals, universities and private and public institutions. He has been a featured and Keynote speaker in Brazil, Australia, France and Germany...
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The trend, though, in Columbus is picking up over the last few months.
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All the folks writing stories about the double dip ought to just delete that file. There are no guarantees, but the train is leaving the station.
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The two-month decline in the index suggests that the already-weak economy is likely to remain weak into next year.
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The flat pace in the leading indicators points to continued moderation in U.S. economic activity. This is reflected in indicators for manufacturing, housing, consumer, labor, and financial markets. The economy is starting to reflect the impact of growth restraints.
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There was cautious optimism a month ago that manufacturing declines might have been bottoming out, ... Now, in the wake of the attacks, economic demand seems likely to slow.
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The labor market indicators turned a little more positive this summer.
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The labor market remains on a high plateau that has prevailed in the last year and a half.
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The small but consistent decreases in the past three-month period certainly point to a second-half economic performance less robust than in the first half of 2000. With employment and income still rising, there will be growth, but not at the pace set earlier in the year.
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If the economy cools a little, the labor market may also cool. Even if energy prices were not going through the roof, the biggest road block would still be the cost of a new hire.
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Historically, job advertising drops off in the months of November and December. This online series does not have a long enough history to seasonally adjust the data. However, we know from The Conference Board's long running Help-Wanted Index for print ads, as well as the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' job vacancy index (JOLTS) that businesses typically decrease their recruitment in the last two months of the year. This seasonal November decline typically reflects the Thanksgiving holiday and a slowdown in recruitments after a seasonal upturn in the late summer/early fall. Year-end budget constraints may also play a role if funds are short for paid advertisements. Nationally, the downturn in new online ad volume the week before and the week of Thanksgiving more than offset the modest increases in the other weeks in November.
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The leading indicators are cooling off from the rapid pace registered at the end of last year. This is not the kind of performance to be expected when gross domestic product grew by 5.2 percent, as it did in the second quarter of 2000.
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It's probably just some reversal of earlier losses. I'm not sure that it's anything more fundamental than that, although its pretty encouraging.
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The spike in energy prices is another major factor changing the direction of the economy, worsened by a decline in confidence by both consumers and chief executives.
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The economy is growing now, but not as fast as it did last year before the hurricanes.