Ken Goldstein
Ken Goldstein
Ken Goldstein, also known as Kene G and Jack Dempsey, born June 1969, is an American film and television writer, producer, director and occasional actor. He is a co-founder of Planet illogica and CEO of The Six Shooter Company and the author of the book series, The Way of the Nerd. Goldstein is an active speaker at conferences and festivals, universities and private and public institutions. He has been a featured and Keynote speaker in Brazil, Australia, France and Germany...
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Given that we're at least a couple of months away from turnaround in the labor market, the fact that consumer confidence is not doing much worse than treading water is actually a good-news story.
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Productivity is the wild card. It's the one thing that has kept the tension between prices and wages on a low simmer.
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The tax cuts are being proposed as permanent cuts,
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The latest readings on print want-ad volume suggest that job growth won't reach the 200,000-a-month pace for at least the next few months.
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People are doing what they want. A lot of the companies that are using these people are doing what they can do profitably.
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The significant increase in the leading indicators during the last six months, tempered only by the financially related pause in February, points to forward momentum in this expansion.
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A weakening national situation is not good news for the Gulf Coast area. Some workers seem reluctant to move to an area where the labor market was already weak.
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If all we've had is consumption, not business investment, there could be a self-fulfilling factor here, ... If consumers run out of patience, they start trimming sales a bit, and the economy, rather than picking up, may weaken a bit. Then the consumer says, 'See, I told you it was going to happen.'
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These data suggest the post-holiday labor market will remain relatively soft -- probably delivering a little less than 200,000 new jobs a month on average.
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Nothing is going to happen in terms of improving confidence until something happens in terms of an improving labor market, and that might well take until after New Year's.
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Rising business costs and uncertainty in many companies about price hikes is a major consideration now in how fast the domestic economy can grow, especially in the second half of the year.
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Down the road, there are significant consequences in terms of what could be developing with the federal budget.
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The leading economic indicators began to lose a little momentum before the hurricanes and flooding. Domestically, business investment appeared to be headed toward a moderate pace in the third quarter.
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A large portion of the declines in ads in November and December are seasonal declines as businesses cut back recruitment ads during the holiday season.