Larry Sabato
Larry Sabato
Larry Joseph Sabatois an American political scientist and political analyst. He is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, where he is also the founder and director of the Center for Politics, which works to promote civic engagement and participation. The Center for Politics is also responsible for the publication of Sabato's Crystal Ball, an online newsletter and website that provides free political analysis and electoral projections...
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For Bush, it's a manmade political disaster on top of a natural disaster. The Bush administration could not have done much worse, it really couldn't. They appeared detached and slow to realize the seriousness of the situation.
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Kerry's great advantage, despite what some people say, is that the threshold is low. People who have decided to vote against Bush are looking for an acceptable candidate, not another Abraham Lincoln or Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
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President Bush is stubborn, and he doesn't like change. He likes a stable home environment.
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If you look at the polls carefully, they show that Americans are disaffected with the Bush administration policy in Iraq, but have very little confidence in the Democrats on that score either.
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It does say that the Bushes and the Bush White House have accepted the fact that she is going to be the party's nominee. It's a little perk, but a very meaningful one in a campaign season.
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This is a case where the Bush administration doesn't need to spell out what they did and why they did it. It's as plain as a wart on the nose of a Miss America. Any attempt by Bush's spokespeople to present this as anything other than an admission of error will be laughed out of the public square.
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It's the first time we have seen it since Bush became president.
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Although he does not like backing down, Bush has realized that he was too ambitious.
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Absolutely. The Republican campaign in Virginia will tell you that, at least privately. The president chose to nationalize that election by showing up on election eve. You don't want to do that unless you want to be associated with the results. I think they thought genuinely Bush could pull him across the race. It wasn't close. The result: Bush has to take the spanking.
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The Bush administration simply cannot let this happen. They have to stop this one way or the other. It would make a mockery of much of what President Bush has about our creation of a new democracy in Afghanistan.
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Absolutely, ... The Republican campaign in Virginia will tell you that, at least privately. The president chose to nationalize that election by showing up on election eve. You don't want to do that unless you want to be associated with the results. I think they thought genuinely Bush could pull him across the race. It wasn't close. The result: Bush has to take the spanking.
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But his greatest problem is that it is hard to see him as offering voters anything other than George W. Bush's third term. And even Bush Republicans realize that the American people don't want that.
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At this point, nothing President Bush says is going to have much impact. The only thing that is going to change public opinion is an improvement in the situation on the ground in Iraq.
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If the Democrats win it's one more indication that Bush is a significant drag on Republican candidates.