Larry Sabato
Larry Sabato
Larry Joseph Sabatois an American political scientist and political analyst. He is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, where he is also the founder and director of the Center for Politics, which works to promote civic engagement and participation. The Center for Politics is also responsible for the publication of Sabato's Crystal Ball, an online newsletter and website that provides free political analysis and electoral projections...
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Kerry's great advantage, despite what some people say, is that the threshold is low. People who have decided to vote against Bush are looking for an acceptable candidate, not another Abraham Lincoln or Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
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We can always go too far, and frequently do. Is it a harbinger? Who knows. But it's unadulterated bad news for Bush and the Republican Party and great news for Democrats as they attempt to make a comeback in 2006.
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He has a great deal at risk. He is coming up for re-election in 2007. This is his last, best chance to recover.
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But his greatest problem is that it is hard to see him as offering voters anything other than George W. Bush's third term. And even Bush Republicans realize that the American people don't want that.
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That's the great danger of the Republican candidates. If the president's popularity is low come November, there will be a substantial turnover and the Republicans will lose seats.
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The devastation is so great and the stories of the victims have united Americans in sympathy.
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Rendell is not just another governor. He's already been a national figure. He has been (Democratic National Committee) chairman, and he knows the movers and shakers and donors in all 50 states.
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It does say that the Bushes and the Bush White House have accepted the fact that she is going to be the party's nominee. It's a little perk, but a very meaningful one in a campaign season.
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It does cause problems for successors. Then the next person feels obligated to do the same thing.
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Most seats in Congress are relatively safe this year. But they are not safe from a tsunami.
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I think it's a smart thing to do.
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Whoever wins will take their issues and claim they're national in scope, ... even if it isn't true.
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You can be sure this will be cited in future years when other Cabinet nominees are not confirmed. Once you break the taboo, it's broken for all time.
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Will this work? Sure, but when he temporarily has to address other issues, his numbers go back down. That's why he's going to have to do it a third time and a fourth time because fundamentally people are not happy with what's happening in Iraq.