Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
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It either means the economy is losing momentum or the (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is losing touch what's actually happening in the economy. Right now I don't know what side to come down on. My sense is that job growth has been stronger than reported.
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The most recent acceleration in productivity growth looks like it was cyclically driven, ... Even with output soaring, many businesses were reluctant to boost hiring because the Fed was hiking interest rates and energy costs were surging. Even if businesses wanted to hire more workers, many could not because the labor markets were so tight.
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It would create an awful mess in Florida, where the labor market is tight by any definition.
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Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices, ... However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI.
based concern current economists energy food increase inflation labor overall raising recent source swings tight wage workers
Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices. However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI.
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But pension accounting is awfully complicated and it's an awfully big company, so it's not surprising the markets would get a little spooked by it.
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It continues to defy all the expectations of doom in the housing market. Demand for housing still remains quite strong and this year will be a record year for single-family construction.
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A rebound in motor vehicle sales accounts for much of December's 0.7 percent rise in overall retail sales and is also responsible for much of November's upward revision.
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If we see an increase in rent we could really see inflation numbers pick up in a meaningful way.
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The federal response has been much larger than we thought it would be, ... And the money is being spent much more quickly.
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The relief money is coming in much faster than it has for any other natural disaster that I can remember. That should help minimize some of the hit on consumer spending,
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It gives the Fed a little more breathing room on interest rates, that's the most I can say.
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In the end, we can work this out. It is $200 billion in spending for a $12 trillion economy, ... It's just a matter of how we finance it, not whether or not we can afford to do it.
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If folks correctly see the economy is booming in Florida, they'll make their way down to the Sunshine State and take a job. Maybe they'll stick around a while and fix a roof while they're here.