Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
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If we see an increase in rent we could really see inflation numbers pick up in a meaningful way.
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Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.
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It either means the economy is losing momentum or the (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is losing touch what's actually happening in the economy. Right now I don't know what side to come down on. My sense is that job growth has been stronger than reported.
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The unemployment rate is likely to hang around 4.5 percent and finish the year somewhere near 4 percent. That would mean that North Carolina would be back in the familiar position of having an unemployment rate below that of the nation.
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But pension accounting is awfully complicated and it's an awfully big company, so it's not surprising the markets would get a little spooked by it.
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It continues to defy all the expectations of doom in the housing market. Demand for housing still remains quite strong and this year will be a record year for single-family construction.
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A rebound in motor vehicle sales accounts for much of December's 0.7 percent rise in overall retail sales and is also responsible for much of November's upward revision.
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The federal response has been much larger than we thought it would be, ... And the money is being spent much more quickly.
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The relief money is coming in much faster than it has for any other natural disaster that I can remember. That should help minimize some of the hit on consumer spending,
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It gives the Fed a little more breathing room on interest rates, that's the most I can say.
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In the end, we can work this out. It is $200 billion in spending for a $12 trillion economy, ... It's just a matter of how we finance it, not whether or not we can afford to do it.
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If folks correctly see the economy is booming in Florida, they'll make their way down to the Sunshine State and take a job. Maybe they'll stick around a while and fix a roof while they're here.
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I think we'll see gas prices rise earlier than usual and faster.
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Consumers are fairly worried about the economy. ... I think the holiday season is going to be ho-hum,