Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
combined employee growth health inability job prices raise reason selling single
When combined with the run-up in employee health-care costs, ... the inability to raise selling prices is the single most important reason that job growth has been lagging so much during this recovery.
abroad deficit demand economy economy-and-economics happen holiday next optimistic order reasonably retailers season shopping starting strong time trade turn until
Demand in the U.S. economy is reasonably strong and retailers are probably optimistic about the holiday shopping season so they are starting to order from abroad now. The trade deficit is going to take some time to turn around. It may not happen until next year.
biggest businesses caution cautious economy employment excessive growth irrational lack reason strong
In the '90s we had irrational exuberance. Now we have excessive caution. And that's the biggest headwind this economy is facing, ... The lack of strong employment growth is one more reason for businesses to be cautious and can be a self-fulfilling prophesy.
acceptable businesses consumer cooling curb economic falling growth months orders production reason recent risen spending
The No. 1 reason new orders and production are falling is that inventories have risen in recent months as consumer spending has slowed, ... Such a buildup was acceptable when economic growth was accelerating. Now that growth is cooling off, businesses will need to curb stockpiles.
earlier gas prices rise usual
I think we'll see gas prices rise earlier than usual and faster.
breathing fed gives interest room
It gives the Fed a little more breathing room on interest rates, that's the most I can say.
responding talk
I think they would be responding to all the talk of outsourcing and all the talk in the headlines.
august due numbers rest solid spending
I think spending will be pretty solid the rest of the year. The August numbers will be important due to back-to-school sales.
bonds boomers college interest money save start starting stocks
Just as when you save for kids' college, you don't want all your money in stocks two years before they start school. Now that the boomers are starting to retire, there's a lot more interest in bonds and longer-dated paper.
continues core fed finished further goods increases likely modest price prices production relatively series signs tops until
While core finished goods are still relatively tame, there are signs that price increases are accelerating further back in the production pipeline, ... Typically the Fed continues tightening until this series tops out. But with prices up only modestly, they will likely continue to make only modest adjustments.
bit close fear fed housing market maybe slowing takes today yesterday
Yesterday there was a little bit of a fear that maybe the housing market is not slowing down much and that the Fed has to do a little bit more, and today it takes some of that fear back out. They are really close to being done.
appreciation demand far less likely moving overall price saw supply
Overall supply and demand are moving into much better balance. With that, we're likely to see far less price appreciation than we saw in 2005.
accelerate annual below continue core exception fed few gradually interest means months next past percent policy pressures price pushing rate recent rose slightly three trends unlikely
Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.
economy either growth happening job labor losing means momentum side stronger touch
It either means the economy is losing momentum or the (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is losing touch what's actually happening in the economy. Right now I don't know what side to come down on. My sense is that job growth has been stronger than reported.