Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
continues core fed finished further goods increases likely modest price prices production relatively series signs tops until
While core finished goods are still relatively tame, there are signs that price increases are accelerating further back in the production pipeline, ... Typically the Fed continues tightening until this series tops out. But with prices up only modestly, they will likely continue to make only modest adjustments.
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The 10 million jobs may be realistic, but it may not be all that different from what we would see no matter what happens. We're looking for 3 million jobs to be created in 2004. Even if Kerry is elected, he'll have no bearing on the economy until 2006.
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Demand in the U.S. economy is reasonably strong and retailers are probably optimistic about the holiday shopping season so they are starting to order from abroad now. The trade deficit is going to take some time to turn around. It may not happen until next year.
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We hope it will be the case that tax cuts will bridge the gap until hiring picks up, but that seems like a pretty precarious plan. But it's the only plan we've got.
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I think we'll see gas prices rise earlier than usual and faster.
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It gives the Fed a little more breathing room on interest rates, that's the most I can say.
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I think they would be responding to all the talk of outsourcing and all the talk in the headlines.
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I think spending will be pretty solid the rest of the year. The August numbers will be important due to back-to-school sales.
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Just as when you save for kids' college, you don't want all your money in stocks two years before they start school. Now that the boomers are starting to retire, there's a lot more interest in bonds and longer-dated paper.
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I think Ferguson might be the best vice chairman we've ever had.
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Yesterday there was a little bit of a fear that maybe the housing market is not slowing down much and that the Fed has to do a little bit more, and today it takes some of that fear back out. They are really close to being done.
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We expect a big jump in consumer confidence now that the effects of Katrina and higher gas prices are further behind us. Higher confidence will lead to a better-than-expected holiday shopping season as well.
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Overall this year the economy moved past the bursting of the stock market bubble. Tech companies finally started growing again and that's really benefited the Triangle.
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Overall supply and demand are moving into much better balance. With that, we're likely to see far less price appreciation than we saw in 2005.