Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
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Looking into the second quarter, what could move us higher is a decline in oil prices, lower bond yields, solid economic data that is non inflationary and stronger growth on the earnings front.
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Markets are in a trading range right now, consolidating gains after the last few months. A lot of investors were looking to this week's data as a way to break out of the range, but what we've seen has left enough doubt in the minds of the bulls that we aren't likely to break out of this range in the next few sessions.
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We're likely to see a correction this year after the run we've had, as well. But the outlook for third and fourth quarter earnings has been good, and if the economic data continue to improve, we could see a slightly more narrow decline that what people have been expecting.
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The rally the past few days shows investors are willing to look past this period of uncertainty toward a pickup in growth in early 2006. It's a pretty optimistic viewpoint and that could change when the data comes in.
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Looks like the stock market has gotten off on positive footing after yesterday's broad-based decline. We're seeing gains in eight of 10 S&P sectors. The data that came out so far was pretty much in line with expectations. Looking ahead, investors will be keeping an eye on auto sales.
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My sense is we continue to see this correction over the next few weeks, but I think once we get through this period and some of the March data starts to come out, stocks will move higher.
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Despite terrorist events around the world, rising oil prices and a lukewarm job market, consumer spending has remained fairly strong, much better than many would have thought. But if the economic data starts to slow and oil rises above $60 a barrel, that could eat into consumer spending.
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The key for next week is that the economic data show strong growth and only moderate inflation.
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The economic data over the next several weeks are going to be difficult to interpret, and it'll be interesting to see how the market reacts,
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I think that next week, and in fact for the next few weeks, the markets are likely to remain in a trading range, with many of the same issues still in place.
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I think the results from AMD and Apple after the close should help boost sentiment toward technology stocks, which have been on a bit of a roll for a few weeks,
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Over the next few trading sessions, it will be important to watch whether the stock market sells off on rising volume. If that should happen, that could mean a spring correction is on the way.
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Just under 30 percent of the S&P 500 report results this week. Among the different industry groups, we'll get a heavy dose of economically sensitive names, including several from the oil and gas, rail, coal and steel industries.
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When the central bank came out and said they're going to drain liquidity over a period of months, that was a catalyst for investors who have avoided the stock market to put some money back in.