Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
certainly continuing energy fed guy hard high markets money prices putting raise rates shy
With the fed continuing to raise rates and energy prices at very high levels, its hard to see the markets making much headway, ... certainly been guy shy about putting new money to work.
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Historically, the three-month period before the Fed goes on hold in the rate hiking cycle, stocks have performed well and that carries on for the next 12 months,
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The mood of the market has clearly improved in recent weeks and this most likely reflects optimism that the Fed is close to the end of its recent rate tightening cycle.
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If you take all those comments together, it implies the Fed is less worried about deflation and more about inflation, all of which sets the stage for higher rates.
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The market is very oversold right now and I expect it to move higher over the next week or two. But beyond that, it's going to be very difficult for it to make much headway until we get a clearer sense of how much the Fed is going to move.
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Everyone expects the Fed to raise (a quarter point) and everyone wants to see if there is a change in the outlook that gives hints about future meetings.
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I think that next week, and in fact for the next few weeks, the markets are likely to remain in a trading range, with many of the same issues still in place.
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I think the results from AMD and Apple after the close should help boost sentiment toward technology stocks, which have been on a bit of a roll for a few weeks,
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Over the next few trading sessions, it will be important to watch whether the stock market sells off on rising volume. If that should happen, that could mean a spring correction is on the way.
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Just under 30 percent of the S&P 500 report results this week. Among the different industry groups, we'll get a heavy dose of economically sensitive names, including several from the oil and gas, rail, coal and steel industries.
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When the central bank came out and said they're going to drain liquidity over a period of months, that was a catalyst for investors who have avoided the stock market to put some money back in.
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Looking into the second quarter, what could move us higher is a decline in oil prices, lower bond yields, solid economic data that is non inflationary and stronger growth on the earnings front.
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Looking ahead to next week, the more important question for investors will be: 'Will the market experience a holiday hangover as investors take profits?'.
ahead followed half looking moderately optimistic performance second stronger weakness year
Looking ahead to 2005, we are moderately optimistic and are looking for a stronger performance in the first half of the year followed by some weakness in the second half of the year.