Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
asian bank buying dependent states united united-states
The United States is very dependent on Asian bank buying and petrodollars.
caught data heavy market players week wrong
Market players don't want to be caught the wrong way here going into a very heavy data week in the U.S..
effect high left watching
This has had a psychological effect on the markets. For those of us left in the office, we're just watching to see just how high the 10-year will go today.
country dollar fiscal formula growth happens investing investors loose monetary policy private report short strong tight
This report is nothing short of remarkable. The formula for a strong dollar is strong growth, tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy. The U.S. happens to have all three. Private investors are comfortable investing in a country like the U.S.
albeit economic positive report tip week
This was undeniably a positive report. Today's report could very well tip off a strong, albeit short, week for U.S. economic data.
buyers curve domestic foreign investors reason recession time yield
The reason why an inverted yield curve need not foreshadow recession this time is that it is foreign investors and not domestic investors who are increasingly buyers of U.S. bonds.
below compelling concerned drifted further hike interest levels next rates reason start
Unemployment has drifted further below 5 percent, and at those levels you have to start being concerned about bidding up of wages. There's a compelling reason to hike interest rates at the next meeting.
dollar fed home increase interest less likely sales trend
Were this trend in new home sales to continue, the Fed will be less likely to increase interest rates, which would be a dollar negative.
asian bank central continued demand elevated ensures foreign oil prices remains strong
We see that elevated oil prices and a continued Asian central bank intervention ensures that foreign demand for U.S. treasuries remains strong during January.
bond concerned decide forward market negative remove ultimately
What we are concerned about is that going forward they may decide to remove petrodollars and redirect them elsewhere. If they do, it is negative for the bond market and ultimately for the U.S. dollar.
exceeded knew september turn worst
We knew that there were going to be some hurricane-related distortions in the September data, but this really exceeded our worst fears. This was a turn for the worst.
aggregate data december itself negative rude total
While the monthly December data was not itself a negative surprise, the aggregate 2005 total was a rude reminder.
china continue currency deficit energy enthusiasm firmly further improvement lasting market prices remains resistant rise trade unexpected
While the US trade deficit showed an unexpected improvement in February, any lasting market enthusiasm was firmly misplaced. Energy prices continue to rise while China remains resistant to further currency flexibility.
asian bonds conscious demand dollar greatest market policy remains soon threat time unlikely whereas
Whereas Asian demand for US bonds is unlikely to end any time soon as a conscious policy decision, the reversal of petrodollars from the US bond market remains the greatest threat to the dollar in 2006.