Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
door fed future hikes left open positive rate
The door will be left open for future rate hikes but the Fed will be increasingly data-dependent. That's positive for the U.S. dollar.
continue dips fed indicate inflation likely raise wage
If unemployment dips any lower, that may indicate some wage inflation and the Fed will likely continue to raise rates.
bank canadian continues dollar federal hike narrow rates reserve
If the Bank of Canadian continues to hike rates after the Federal Reserve pauses, it will narrow the rate differential between the two. This will make the Canadian dollar more favorable.
dollar faster fed giving itself later pace positive raise rates removal room word
The removal of the word 'measured' ... would be positive for the dollar as it suggests that the Fed is giving itself room to raise rates at a faster pace later this year.
dollar fed interest looks provide rate supporting time until
Interest rate differentials are supporting the U.S. dollar for the time being. Until the Fed pauses, it looks that's going to provide support for dollar bulls.
change consistent data fed
Our Fed watchers say there's a consistent story that the Fed is one and done. Today's data doesn't change this story.
continue economic expected fed heads interest political rates report rising risk strength underlying
The monthly GDP report fed into underlying CAD strength. With political risk subsiding, rising interest rates and fundamental economic strength are prompting CAD buying, which is expected to continue through year-end as USD/CAD heads for the 1.10 mark.
below continue data fed labor likely market raising rates remains services support view
February's data support the view that the U.S. labor market remains strong, particularly on the services side, with unemployment solidly below the 5% level. The Fed is likely to continue raising rates for the foreseeable future.
choke growth oil prevent prices recovery risen stock view
Oil prices have risen so dramatically that the view now is that this could choke off U.S. growth and prevent any recovery in the stock market.
anecdotal due evidence floor flows greater impact level lighter lower market point seeing trading
Anecdotal evidence on the trading floor indicates things have been lighter than at any other point in the week. You are seeing some one-off flows that are making a greater impact in the market due to this lower level of liquidity and volume.
friday quite
There was quite a sell-off on Friday and it may have been overblown.
attempting investors positions square
Investors are attempting to square up their positions before the long weekend.
durable favorable gains given goods growth interest january market positive rate recent unlikely weigh
Given the recent spate of positive January data, CPI and durable goods are unlikely to disappoint. The USD is positioned to make new gains ... as favorable U.S. growth and interest rate differentials weigh on market sentiment.
market tape
But the tape will not be as important to the market as new data.