Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
below compelling concerned drifted further hike interest levels next rates reason start
Unemployment has drifted further below 5 percent, and at those levels you have to start being concerned about bidding up of wages. There's a compelling reason to hike interest rates at the next meeting.
durable favorable gains given goods growth interest january market positive rate recent unlikely weigh
Given the recent spate of positive January data, CPI and durable goods are unlikely to disappoint. The USD is positioned to make new gains ... as favorable U.S. growth and interest rate differentials weigh on market sentiment.
dollar fed home increase interest less likely sales trend
Were this trend in new home sales to continue, the Fed will be less likely to increase interest rates, which would be a dollar negative.
compelling hike interest next rates reason
There's a compelling reason to hike interest rates at the next meeting.
continue economic expected fed heads interest political rates report rising risk strength underlying
The monthly GDP report fed into underlying CAD strength. With political risk subsiding, rising interest rates and fundamental economic strength are prompting CAD buying, which is expected to continue through year-end as USD/CAD heads for the 1.10 mark.
dollar fed interest looks provide rate supporting time until
Interest rate differentials are supporting the U.S. dollar for the time being. Until the Fed pauses, it looks that's going to provide support for dollar bulls.
continued fully globally hike hikes interest march positive rate talk
The hike in March is fully priced in. The hike in May is over 80% priced in. There is already talk of continued hikes after that. Interest rate differentials globally are increasingly favoring the U.S. and it's positive for the dollar.
chance increased interest market mean meeting next percent rates took
The market took this to mean that there is a 100 percent chance that interest rates will be increased at the next meeting and a 75 percent chance at the meeting after that.
continued dollar importance interest labor market rally rate report respect
The dollar rally after the non-farm payrolls report underscores the continued importance of labor market tightness with respect to interest rate expectations.
change consistent data fed
Our Fed watchers say there's a consistent story that the Fed is one and done. Today's data doesn't change this story.
backing dollar economic economy likely rate strong
There are strong economic fundamentals backing not only the U.S. economy but the U.S. dollar right now. We are likely to get two more rate hikes.
caught data heavy market players week wrong
Market players don't want to be caught the wrong way here going into a very heavy data week in the U.S..
exceeded knew september turn worst
We knew that there were going to be some hurricane-related distortions in the September data, but this really exceeded our worst fears. This was a turn for the worst.
asian bonds conscious demand dollar greatest market policy remains soon threat time unlikely whereas
Whereas Asian demand for US bonds is unlikely to end any time soon as a conscious policy decision, the reversal of petrodollars from the US bond market remains the greatest threat to the dollar in 2006.