Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
durable favorable gains given goods growth interest january market positive rate recent unlikely weigh
Given the recent spate of positive January data, CPI and durable goods are unlikely to disappoint. The USD is positioned to make new gains ... as favorable U.S. growth and interest rate differentials weigh on market sentiment.
continued fully globally hike hikes interest march positive rate talk
The hike in March is fully priced in. The hike in May is over 80% priced in. There is already talk of continued hikes after that. Interest rate differentials globally are increasingly favoring the U.S. and it's positive for the dollar.
compelling hike interest next rates reason
There's a compelling reason to hike interest rates at the next meeting.
continued dollar importance interest labor market rally rate report respect
The dollar rally after the non-farm payrolls report underscores the continued importance of labor market tightness with respect to interest rate expectations.
dollar fed interest looks provide rate supporting time until
Interest rate differentials are supporting the U.S. dollar for the time being. Until the Fed pauses, it looks that's going to provide support for dollar bulls.
chance increased interest market mean meeting next percent rates took
The market took this to mean that there is a 100 percent chance that interest rates will be increased at the next meeting and a 75 percent chance at the meeting after that.
continue economic expected fed heads interest political rates report rising risk strength underlying
The monthly GDP report fed into underlying CAD strength. With political risk subsiding, rising interest rates and fundamental economic strength are prompting CAD buying, which is expected to continue through year-end as USD/CAD heads for the 1.10 mark.
choke growth oil prevent prices recovery risen stock view
Oil prices have risen so dramatically that the view now is that this could choke off U.S. growth and prevent any recovery in the stock market.
door fed future hikes left open positive rate
The door will be left open for future rate hikes but the Fed will be increasingly data-dependent. That's positive for the U.S. dollar.
anecdotal due evidence floor flows greater impact level lighter lower market point seeing trading
Anecdotal evidence on the trading floor indicates things have been lighter than at any other point in the week. You are seeing some one-off flows that are making a greater impact in the market due to this lower level of liquidity and volume.
friday quite
There was quite a sell-off on Friday and it may have been overblown.
attempting investors positions square
Investors are attempting to square up their positions before the long weekend.
continue dips fed indicate inflation likely raise wage
If unemployment dips any lower, that may indicate some wage inflation and the Fed will likely continue to raise rates.
market tape
But the tape will not be as important to the market as new data.