Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
bank canadian continues dollar federal hike narrow rates reserve
If the Bank of Canadian continues to hike rates after the Federal Reserve pauses, it will narrow the rate differential between the two. This will make the Canadian dollar more favorable.
compelling hike interest next rates reason
There's a compelling reason to hike interest rates at the next meeting.
dollar faster fed giving itself later pace positive raise rates removal room word
The removal of the word 'measured' ... would be positive for the dollar as it suggests that the Fed is giving itself room to raise rates at a faster pace later this year.
chance increased interest market mean meeting next percent rates took
The market took this to mean that there is a 100 percent chance that interest rates will be increased at the next meeting and a 75 percent chance at the meeting after that.
continue economic expected fed heads interest political rates report rising risk strength underlying
The monthly GDP report fed into underlying CAD strength. With political risk subsiding, rising interest rates and fundamental economic strength are prompting CAD buying, which is expected to continue through year-end as USD/CAD heads for the 1.10 mark.
below continue data fed labor likely market raising rates remains services support view
February's data support the view that the U.S. labor market remains strong, particularly on the services side, with unemployment solidly below the 5% level. The Fed is likely to continue raising rates for the foreseeable future.
above capacity fed further given high increases last later levels low march raise rates recent release report
Given recent Fed warnings over high levels of capacity utilization and low levels of unemployment, today's report increases the probability that the Fed will raise rates above 5.0% later this year. Last Friday's release of March unemployment further buttresses this view.
choke growth oil prevent prices recovery risen stock view
Oil prices have risen so dramatically that the view now is that this could choke off U.S. growth and prevent any recovery in the stock market.
door fed future hikes left open positive rate
The door will be left open for future rate hikes but the Fed will be increasingly data-dependent. That's positive for the U.S. dollar.
anecdotal due evidence floor flows greater impact level lighter lower market point seeing trading
Anecdotal evidence on the trading floor indicates things have been lighter than at any other point in the week. You are seeing some one-off flows that are making a greater impact in the market due to this lower level of liquidity and volume.
friday quite
There was quite a sell-off on Friday and it may have been overblown.
attempting investors positions square
Investors are attempting to square up their positions before the long weekend.
durable favorable gains given goods growth interest january market positive rate recent unlikely weigh
Given the recent spate of positive January data, CPI and durable goods are unlikely to disappoint. The USD is positioned to make new gains ... as favorable U.S. growth and interest rate differentials weigh on market sentiment.
continue dips fed indicate inflation likely raise wage
If unemployment dips any lower, that may indicate some wage inflation and the Fed will likely continue to raise rates.