Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
asian bank central continued demand elevated ensures foreign oil prices remains strong
We see that elevated oil prices and a continued Asian central bank intervention ensures that foreign demand for U.S. treasuries remains strong during January.
dollar fed home increase interest less likely sales trend
Were this trend in new home sales to continue, the Fed will be less likely to increase interest rates, which would be a dollar negative.
china continue currency deficit energy enthusiasm firmly further improvement lasting market prices remains resistant rise trade unexpected
While the US trade deficit showed an unexpected improvement in February, any lasting market enthusiasm was firmly misplaced. Energy prices continue to rise while China remains resistant to further currency flexibility.
aggregate data december itself negative rude total
While the monthly December data was not itself a negative surprise, the aggregate 2005 total was a rude reminder.
benign canadian dollar inflation
Benign inflation has weakened the Canadian dollar a little bit.
bond concerned decide forward market negative remove ultimately
What we are concerned about is that going forward they may decide to remove petrodollars and redirect them elsewhere. If they do, it is negative for the bond market and ultimately for the U.S. dollar.
country dollar fiscal formula growth happens investing investors loose monetary policy private report short strong tight
This report is nothing short of remarkable. The formula for a strong dollar is strong growth, tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy. The U.S. happens to have all three. Private investors are comfortable investing in a country like the U.S.
buyers curve domestic foreign investors reason recession time yield
The reason why an inverted yield curve need not foreshadow recession this time is that it is foreign investors and not domestic investors who are increasingly buyers of U.S. bonds.
auto loss market reflect rest saying surprise
(The survey) was a big surprise this morning, but some of the market is saying that Detroit, because of loss of auto jobs, does not reflect the rest of the nation.
anecdotal due evidence floor flows greater impact level lighter lower market point seeing trading
Anecdotal evidence on the trading floor indicates things have been lighter than at any other point in the week. You are seeing some one-off flows that are making a greater impact in the market due to this lower level of liquidity and volume.
below continue data fed labor likely market raising rates remains services support view
February's data support the view that the U.S. labor market remains strong, particularly on the services side, with unemployment solidly below the 5% level. The Fed is likely to continue raising rates for the foreseeable future.
appears bank buying consistent easing economy indication japan japanese prompt returning viewed
This morning's announcement by the Bank of Japan to end quantitative easing is being viewed as an indication that the Japanese economy is returning to health, but appears insufficient to prompt any consistent yen buying as of yet.
friday quite
There was quite a sell-off on Friday and it may have been overblown.
bank changing japan monetary strength
There was yen strength on the anticipation the Bank of Japan could be changing its monetary policy. Those expectations have been curbed.