Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
benign canadian dollar inflation
Benign inflation has weakened the Canadian dollar a little bit.
continued dollar importance interest labor market rally rate report respect
The dollar rally after the non-farm payrolls report underscores the continued importance of labor market tightness with respect to interest rate expectations.
dollar fed interest looks provide rate supporting time until
Interest rate differentials are supporting the U.S. dollar for the time being. Until the Fed pauses, it looks that's going to provide support for dollar bulls.
ability deficit given indication market rally strong strongly trade
The US dollar's ability to rally strongly off a better-than-expected trade deficit is a strong indication that the market hasn't yet given up on the dollar.
auto loss market reflect rest saying surprise
(The survey) was a big surprise this morning, but some of the market is saying that Detroit, because of loss of auto jobs, does not reflect the rest of the nation.
bought coming decides dollars euro low market negative possible quite sent time trading vote weekend weeks
The weekend 'No' vote was deemed to be negative for the euro and has sent the euro/dollar into a new trading range. It is quite possible that in the coming weeks we could get as low as $1.20 before the market decides that it has bought enough dollars for the time being.
change consistent data fed
Our Fed watchers say there's a consistent story that the Fed is one and done. Today's data doesn't change this story.
chance increased interest market mean meeting next percent rates took
The market took this to mean that there is a 100 percent chance that interest rates will be increased at the next meeting and a 75 percent chance at the meeting after that.
continue economic expected fed heads interest political rates report rising risk strength underlying
The monthly GDP report fed into underlying CAD strength. With political risk subsiding, rising interest rates and fundamental economic strength are prompting CAD buying, which is expected to continue through year-end as USD/CAD heads for the 1.10 mark.
building caused clothing december demand despite domestic figure fourth previous reflected retail sales strong supplies support
Despite some base-effect distortions caused by surges in building supplies and clothing sales in the previous month, December retail sales reflected broad-based domestic demand that should support a strong GDP figure for the fourth quarter.
consumers dollar economy heading keeping next spending strength
Consumers are out there spending and keeping the economy alive. We see dollar strength heading into next year.
account action arguably cannot corrected current deficit grown point
The current account deficit has grown to a point where it arguably cannot be corrected by US action alone.
below continue data fed labor likely market raising rates remains services support view
February's data support the view that the U.S. labor market remains strong, particularly on the services side, with unemployment solidly below the 5% level. The Fed is likely to continue raising rates for the foreseeable future.
beats certain optimistic
This certain beats even the most optimistic forecasts,