Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
form higher lower main margins prices profit
The main thing is cost-savings which radiate out in the form of lower prices for high-tech goods, and higher profit margins for the companies,
effect quite
The G-7 is quite impotent on oil. They can say what they want, but they won't have a lot of effect on prices.
confident core fed higher inflation oil record though year
It is encouraging that core inflation in 2005 was no higher than the year before even though we had record oil prices. From that perspective, the Fed can feel confident that inflation won't get out of control.
customers energy hardest hit holiday losers low retailers season shopping
The losers were on the low end. Retailers like Wal-Mart had a pretty lackluster holiday shopping season because their customers were hit the hardest by the energy situation.
demand economy goods hurricane impact remains strength underlying
Once you take out the impact of Hurricane Katrina, demand for manufactured goods remains pretty robust. The underlying strength in the economy is still pretty good.
airlines both businesses costs curtail energy example higher households jet spending squeeze
The higher energy costs will put a squeeze on both businesses and households. They're spending so much on energy - the households on gasoline, the airlines on jet fuel, for example - that they'll have to curtail elsewhere.
economy growth somewhat stronger
The economy is on a somewhat stronger growth trajectory.
currency deficits next start three
I think the way out of these deficits is that the U.S. currency will start to come down over the next two to three years.
deficit last number question worse year
There is no question that the deficit this year will be worse than last year. A number of the improvements in May were temporary.
question year
There is no question that we are going out in this year with a lot of momentum.
absorb seem serial
We seem to be able to absorb serial shocks.
consumer good growth news relying
The good news for the U.S. is that growth has diversified. We aren't just relying on the consumer and housing.
feels
When it is up around 6%, it feels a lot worse.
comfort core despite fact fed global inflation insight modest near remains room
While there is no room for complacency, the Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures. Global Insight predicts that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle.