Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
confident core fed higher inflation oil record though year
It is encouraging that core inflation in 2005 was no higher than the year before even though we had record oil prices. From that perspective, the Fed can feel confident that inflation won't get out of control.
housing maybe pervasive rest seeing signs third trend underlying weakness
Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
customers energy hardest hit holiday losers low retailers season shopping
The losers were on the low end. Retailers like Wal-Mart had a pretty lackluster holiday shopping season because their customers were hit the hardest by the energy situation.
demand economy goods hurricane impact remains strength underlying
Once you take out the impact of Hurricane Katrina, demand for manufactured goods remains pretty robust. The underlying strength in the economy is still pretty good.
airlines both businesses costs curtail energy example higher households jet spending squeeze
The higher energy costs will put a squeeze on both businesses and households. They're spending so much on energy - the households on gasoline, the airlines on jet fuel, for example - that they'll have to curtail elsewhere.
economy growth somewhat stronger
The economy is on a somewhat stronger growth trajectory.
building pressures
That suggests that we are getting some inflationary pressures building in the pipeline,
currency deficits next start three
I think the way out of these deficits is that the U.S. currency will start to come down over the next two to three years.
felt happen shocking starting
It's starting to happen in high-tech professions which we felt were 'ours,' ... That's what's shocking people.
auto effect forward fourth incentive numbers programs pulling quarter reflect ripple sales third
Auto numbers reflect the ripple effect of incentive programs pulling forward sales from the fourth quarter into the third quarter.
energy prices rest spill
Record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy.
airlines economy hard jet pass paying prices record
This is an economy where airlines are paying record prices for jet fuel, and yet it is very hard to pass through those costs.
awful full impact industrial months next numbers production shows
The industrial production numbers in the next two months will look pretty awful as the full impact of the hurricane-related shutdowns shows up in the data.
asian economies high oil pleasant record remarkable resilience surprise
The most pleasant surprise and remarkable development in 2005 has been the resilience of the US and Asian economies to record high oil prices.