Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
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We seem to be able to absorb serial shocks.
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While there is no room for complacency, the Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures. Global Insight predicts that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle.
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Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate.
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Even though consumers may be a little jittery, they haven't stopped spending.
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The good news for the U.S. is that growth has diversified. We aren't just relying on the consumer and housing.
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We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
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Natural gas prices are going to go through the roof in the next couple of months, and that is going to hurt a lot of families.
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Perhaps the single best piece of economic news in 2005 was that record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy. While the Fed can be relaxed about inflationary risks in the U.S. economy, its role is to preempt.
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Let's be clear -- for the next couple of months the employment numbers are going to look terrible. There's going to be a lot of noise and problems gathering the data, so it's going to be tougher than usual to sift through the tea leaves and really get at the heart of what's going on here.
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There's not a lot of relief in sight. I would not be surprised to see the monthly deficit go above $60 billion by fall, and stay there.
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Rather than the doom and gloom we've been hearing, the consumer hasn't packed it in, and Christmas sales will be reasonably good.
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Even before the hurricane hit, rising energy prices were having a dampening effect on the economy,
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Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
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This is an economy where airlines are paying record prices for jet fuel, and yet it is very hard to pass through those costs.